Dire Predictions On Ebola's Spread From Top Health Organizations
Two of the world's top health organizations released predictions Tuesday warning how bad the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could get.
Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization agree that the epidemic is speeding up. But the CDC's worst-case scenario is a jaw-dropper: If interventions don't start working soon, as many as 1.4 million people could be infected by Jan. 20, the agency reported in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
Health officials at the CDC in Atlanta don't pull the fire alarm if there isn't a fire. But 1.4 million cases by the end of January? Are they trying to scare us?
"Figures of that kind certainly have shock value," says Christopher Dye, who directs strategy for WHO in Geneva.
WHO published its estimates for the epidemic in The New England Journal of Medicine. Its prediction is more conservative: more than 20,000 Ebola cases by early November. The agency didn't extend the prediction beyond that month.
"These kinds of projections are not to say that this is what is going to happen," Dye explains. "These projections say, 'If there aren't further measures put in place, these are the kinds of case numbers we'd expect to see.' "
So what about the 1.4 million cases by late January? Unlike the WHO's model, the CDC's model includes compensation for the fact that many cases probably haven't been reported. So the known cases right now — about 5,800 — is probably much lower than the actually number of people who have gotten Ebola since the epidemic began.
When this so-called underreporting isn't included in the CDC's models, the agency predicts about 550,000 cases by late January.
The CDC is modeling out that far into the future to show the enormous cost that comes with delaying aid to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, says the agency's director, Dr. Tom Frieden.
"For each month of delay," he says, "there is a big increase in the number of cases and it gets that much more difficult to control the epidemic."
But he doesn't think a doomsday scenario is likely. He's confident that the most dire projections will not come to pass.
Both agencies agree on how to turn the tide of this epidemic: Get 70 percent of sick people into isolation and treatment centers. Right now, Dye says fewer than half the people who need treatment are getting it.
If all goes well, Dye expects the goal of 70 percent could be reached in several weeks.
But the data have revealed another problem: "Our great concern is this will be an epidemic that lasts for several years," he says.
The epidemic has hit such a size — and become so widespread geographically — that Ebola could become a permanent presence in West Africa. If that happens, there would be a constant threat that Ebola could spread to other parts of the world.
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Transcript
ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:
Two of the world 's leading health organizations released their predictions today of how bad the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could become. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization agree, the epidemic is speeding up. And the CDC says worst-case, if no help arrives, more than 1.4 million people could be infected by early next year. The agencies say that that doomsday scenario is unlikely to happen, but as NPR's Michael Michaeleen Doucleff reports, the numbers serve as a warning.
MICHAELEEN DOUCLEFF, BYLINE: Health officials at the CDC in Atlanta don't usually pull the fire alarm if there isn't a fire, but 1.4 million cases by the end of January? Are they trying to scare us?
CHRIS DYE: Figures of that kind certainly have shock value.
DOUCLEFF: Chris Dye is based in Geneva and he directs strategy for the World Health Organization.
DYE: These kinds of projections are not to say that this is what is going to happen, these projections say that if there aren't further measures put in place, then these are the kinds of case numbers that we'd expect to see.
DOUCLEFF: With predictions like 1.4 million cases, the CDC says it's trying this show that there is an enormous cost for delay in getting aid to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Doctor Tom Frieden is director of the CDC.
TOM FRIEDEN: For each month of delay, there's a big increase in the number of cases and it gets that much more difficult to control all the epidemic.
DOUCLEFF: And Frieden is on the same page as his WHO colleague about this worst-case scenario.
FRIEDEN: I'm confident that the most dire projections are not going to come to past.
DOUCLEFF: That's because aid is already starting to arrive in West Africa. The U.S. is making plans to set up 1,700 treatment beds in Liberia and the U.K. also announced last week it will provide 700 beds in Sierra Leone. The World Health Organization's estimates for the epidemic are more conservative than the CDC's, Chris Dye says they only go through early November.
DYE: Our projections are for more than 20,000 cases by then.
DOUCLEFF: He says the WHO forecasts also don't take into account that aid is now arriving. Both agencies do agree on how to turn the tide on this epidemic, get 70 percent of sick people in isolation and treatment centers. Right now, Dye says, less than half of the people who need treatment are getting it. But if all goes well, he expects they could reach that 70 percent goal in several weeks. But the data do reveal another problem.
DYE: Our great concern is that this will be an epidemic that lasts for several years.
DOUCLEFF: The epidemic has had such a size and become so widespread that even if they slow it down, Ebola could become a permanent presence in West Africa. If that happens there would be a constant threat that Ebola could spread around the world. Michaeleen Doucleff, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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