U.S. Could Stand To Lose A Lot By Getting Involved In Ukraine

Transcript

AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:

Earlier this week we heard from a former diplomat who's part of an influential group pushing the U.S. to step up military aid to Ukraine. They want the U.S. to provide the Ukrainian government with anti-armor missiles and other equipment to counter the heavily armed Russian-backed separatists. Here's how former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder presented the idea.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED BROADCAST)

IVO DAALDER: Hopefully the defensive arms that are being provided would then inflict the kind of cost on Russia that would have an impact. We know from the situation that happened last summer that the one thing Mr. Putin is most concerned about is Russian casualties.

CORNISH: But Rajan Menon disagrees. He is a professor of political science at City College of New York's Powell School and co-author of the new book "Conflict in Ukraine." Welcome to the program.

RAJAN MENON: Thank you.

CORNISH: So you just heard Ivo Daalder there. What's wrong with thinking that Russia doesn't want to escalate things into a proxy war any more than the U.S. does?

MENON: Well, I noticed that Mr. Daalder said hopefully X or Y would happen. We can't do something so dangerous - is the only way to put it - based on hope. I don't think that Putin is as concerned about casualties as Mr. Daalder believes he is. I think they've taken significant casualties and scaled up the war. Moreover, we would be involved indirectly in a war with Russia right across the border from Russia. Now, you don't have to be a geographical genius to see that that has enormous advantages for Russia.

CORNISH: Identify specifically what you think the dangers are of sending more aggressive weaponry.

MENON: Russia can scale up the war with its troops and irregulars and weaponry in large amounts, far faster than we can. We will be backing an Ukrainian army that is not in very good shape that recently has lost a lot of territory. There is, Audie, a humanitarian catastrophe in the region - 5,000 people dead, 1.5 million refugees internally displaced or externally. That would become worse. Ukraine is bankrupt. Its currency is collapsing. That would become worse. I can see no good coming from this. The only solution here is a political solution.

CORNISH: But what about the argument that this could go hand-in-hand with a political solution? That we're not ruling out one, but adding the other.

MENON: I think what's much more likely is that this will spoil the context for diplomatic settlement because the Russians will respond, as they already have said they will, by increasing their support for the rebels.

CORNISH: Now, economic sanctions have not deterred Vladimir Putin and the Russian-backed separatists. Neither has the cease-fire. What else are you suggesting that the U.S. and Europe could do to deter Russia or to at least help Ukraine defend its territory from separatists?

MENON: So the French and the Germans, as you know, are not for the first time trying to put together a solution. They're playing it close to the vest. We don't know what it is. But I think the outline of the solution would be pullback of troops, a no-weapons zone and observers and peacekeepers in the region and some way to control the flow back and forth across the Russian-Ukrainian border from the Ukrainian side, given that the Russians are unlikely to permit any forces or observers on their side. These things have been done before in prior conflicts, and that is the only modality, if you will, to solve this conflict.

CORNISH: And what is your read from the White House in terms of different members of the cabinet sort of making comments here and there about whether this might be something they'd consider?

MENON: I think that there is a divide and a debate within Mr. Obama's administration. The president will ultimately decide, but my concern about this report that's been issued - because it has a lot of heavyweight names attached to it - is that it could, in some respect, sway the balance. Defense secretary designate Ash Carter was asked in a Senate testimony about whether he would support arms to Ukraine, and he said yes. Now let's assume he wants to get confirmed and he just was throwing some red meat senators who want to do this. Be that as it may, it is a sign that we are seriously considering this path of action which we had not been until now. We had supplied nonlethal aid.

CORNISH: Rajan Menon is the co-author of the new book "Conflict In Ukraine." He's also a professor of political science at City College of New York's Powell School. Thank you so much for speaking with us.

MENON: My pleasure, Audie. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.