The 2 paths deciding the presidency. And, California could determine House control

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Today's top stories

Former President Donald Trump has made headlines for some unusual campaign antics recently as Election Day draws near. Both he and Vice President Harris are filling their calendars with interviews and events. Trump continues to be inflammatory, hurling insults at former President Barack Obama, falsely suggesting Harris is on drugs and demonizing undocumented immigrants.

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• 🎧 “He isn’t acting the way a candidate usually acts when a really close race is drawing to a close,” NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben tells Up First. As Harris reaches out to moderates, he is more focused on leaning into turnout rather than persuasion. Trump is also getting his message out and leaving no stone unturned by going on podcasts like Joe Rogan's.
• ➡️ There are multiple paths to either Harris or Trump getting the majority of electoral votes in November. Based on the math, one of two things has to happen for one of them to win, provided they win in places he or she is favored. Here’s what those paths are.

While California is largely left out of the presidential contest because it's not a swing state, it could determine who controls the House. Five House races in the deeply blue state are considered among the closest in the country.

• 🎧 The voters in these districts are unique because they support Republicans on the congressional level but are put off by Trump, election denialism and some social issues on the presidential level. Ticket-splitting of this kind is getting more and more rare nationally, Guy Marzorati of NPR network station KQED says. Orange County, a former Republican stronghold, continues to be the biggest battleground. It has now moved left as voters with college degrees move to the Democratic party “What we have seen here is Democrats benefitting from this idea of the ‘diploma divide,’” Marzorati says.

The Boeing machinists union is set to vote on a new contract that could possibly end their strike. This comes after the union overwhelmingly rejected the company’s first contract offer over five weeks ago. The president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751, Jon Holden, says he doesn’t know how his 33,000 members will vote today. But, one thing is certain: Boeing’s problems will not end when the strike ends. The company has been losing more than a billion dollars a month as production at its Pacific Northwest factories halted.

We, the voters

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NPR is visiting six key swing states that will likely decide this year’s historic election. This week, Morning Edition is in Pennsylvania to listen to voters about what matters to them and how that will affect their vote.

As the U.S. steel has industry evolved and declined, jobs for the once-booming enterprise have been cut. In Braddock, Pa. The population has dropped over the past almost 100 years, chiefly due to the decline in steel jobs. At its peak, U.S. Steel employed about 340,000 workers. Now, company officials say they employ about 4,000 people in the area and Edgar Thomson Works employs about 650 workers. The potential sale of U.S. Steel for more than $14 billion to a Japanese company casts a shadow over Braddock’s future. Trump and Harris both oppose the sale, but some Braddock residents feel it could benefit the region.

• 📷 See photos of the city and the people impacted by the industry and read about what they feel their city needs to ensure its future.

Deep dive

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Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a half-point last month, mortgage rates have continued to tick upwards. According to the latest data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), the average 30-year mortgage rate has increased to 6.4%. Let's examine why this is happening and what it means for potential homebuyers.

• 🏠 The Fed can influence mortgage rates, but it doesn’t set them.
• 🏠 Mortgage rates mainly follow the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which has increased recently.
• 🏠 People should not try to time the market when deciding to buy a home. If mortgage rates fall after your purchase, you can refinance and take advantage of the lower rate.
• 🏠 Home prices, which remain high, matter too when it comes to the housing market.

3 things to know before you go

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1. New York Magazine has parted ways with writer Olivia Nuzzi a month after she was placed on leave due to her undisclosed relationship with then-presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2. Mike Jeffries, who led Abercrombie & Fitch Co. for over two decades, was arrested as part of a federal investigation into a sex trafficking and interstate prostitution case.
3. Five people are dead after a shooting in a home near Seattle, Wash., on Monday. A 15-year-old was taken into custody.

This newsletter was edited by Suzanne Nuyen.