5 Reasons Texas Matters More For The GOP Nomination Than Iowa Or N.H.
Presidential candidates may be camping out this month in Iowa and New Hampshire, but Texans know that the Lone Star State is the real prize in the 2016 Republican primaries.
It may sound like Texan bragging, but no matter how you slice it, Texas matters — big.
"Texas has an outsize impact on the GOP nomination," said Ted Delisi, a Republican strategist who's worked for Texas Sen. John Cornyn and former Gov. Rick Perry.
1. Delegates, Delegates, Delegates
To become the party's presidential nominee, candidates need to win a majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.
On March 1, 12 states will hold primaries with the single greatest number of delegates up for grabs on any one day. Win five of them — Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota and Vermont — and you just might walk away with as many delegates as you get by winning some share of the 155 delegates from Texas.
"That's an eighth — 12-and-a-half percent all the way toward the nomination, and if a campaign does really well in Texas, it is obviously the crown jewel of what's at stake on March 1st," said Delisi.
2. It's Home Field For Plenty Of Candidates
Sen. Ted Cruz may represent Texas in the Senate, but plenty of other candidates have Texas ties.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee went to college in Texas. Former Sen. Rick Santorum is involved with EchoLight Studios, which used to be based in the state. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were both born in the state. Bush's brother, George W., was governor of Texas, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul grew up in Texas, and his father represented a congressional district there for years.
3. The Campaigns Are Already On The Ground In Texas
Paul opened a campaign office in Austin way back in March and brought former Texas GOP chairman Steve Munisteri onto his campaign. Fiorina recently hired Rick Perry's campaign manager and Bush's last name alone connects him to lots of wealthy donors.
In a state this big and complicated, these are important connections.
"I think the campaigns that have momentum, have resources, and can most exploit those places to pick up delegates...have the potential to do very well," said GOP strategist Delisi.
4. Texas Is Ground Zero For The GOP's Top Priorities
Republicans love to tout how the state's business-friendly economy has outpaced the rest of the country in terms of job growth. Texas has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country, a law that's heading to the Supreme Court in 2016. And while candidates can talk about securing the border in Iowa, it sounds and looks better when you're on the border — like when Donald Trump visited Laredo this summer.
5. Will The GOP Field Be Winnowed In Texas?
In past elections, there's usually a major winnowing of presidential candidates after Iowa and New Hampshire. But with Texas and other Super Tuesday states coming less than a month later, Delisi argues that more candidates than usual may make a stand in Texas.
"They're still focused on Iowa and New Hampshire. But they understand that as the process gets going they need to have infrastructure here. So that when they catch their moment, they want to be ready for it here," Delisi said.
So enjoy the caucuses and have fun in New Hampshire. But pay attention to what happens in Texas.
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Transcript
RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:
And just days into 2016, the political news is focused on what's going on in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states where people get to vote for presidential candidates. But down in the Lone Star State, Texans know they are the real prize in this year's Republican primaries. From member station KUT in Austin, Ben Philpott explains why this is not just the usual Texas bragging.
BEN PHILPOTT, BYLINE: I mean, sure, it is Texas bragging. But this time, there's data behind the claim. Because no matter how you slice it, Texas comes up big.
TED DELISI: Texas has an outsized impact on the GOP nomination.
PHILPOTT: That's Republican strategist Ted Delisi, and he's going to help me to lay out the four-point case for Texas. We'll start with delegates. On March 1, Texas has 155 up for grabs. Is that a lot?
DELISI: That's an eighth, 12 and a half percent all the way toward the nomination. And if a campaign does really well in Texas, it is obviously the crown jewel of what's at stake on March 1.
PHILPOTT: There are 12 states voting on March 1. Win five of them - Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota and Vermont - and you just might walk away with as many delegates as you get by winning big in Texas. Fine, you say, but doesn't Ted Cruz have a big advantage in his home state? That leads me to point number two. Texas is still a competitive race. Early polls have had Donald Trump in first or second. And sure, Cruz does have the advantage of representing Texas in the Senate, but former state Republican Party chairman Steve Munisteri says Cruz is far from the only local in the race.
STEVE MUNISTERI: You've got Gov. Huckabee, went to college here. You've got Rick Santorum who runs EchoLight Studios in DFW. You've got Carly who was born in Austin, Texas. You've got Jeb Bush who was born in Texas. You've got Rand Paul who was here since first grade.
PHILPOTT: That takes us to point number three. The strategic candidates already have an eye on Texas. Rand Paul opened a campaign office in Austin way back in March and brought former chairman Munisteri onto his campaign. Carly Fiorina recently hired Rick Perry's campaign manager. And of course, Jeb Bush's last name alone connects him to lots of wealthy donors. GOP strategist Ted Delisi says in a state this big and complicated, these are important connections.
DELISI: I think the campaigns that have momentum, have resources and can most exploit those places to pick up delegates have the potential to do very well.
PHILPOTT: Finally, point number four, Texas is the best place to talk about the GOP's top priorities. The economy, Texas has outpaced the rest of the country in terms of job growth. Abortion, Texas owns one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country, a law that's heading to the Supreme Court in 2016. And candidates can talk about securing the border in Iowa, but it sounds and looks better when you're on the border, like when Donald Trump visited Laredo, Texas, this summer.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
DONALD TRUMP: There is a huge problem with the illegals coming through. And in this section, it's a problem. In some sections, it's a massive problem. You have to make the people that come in, they have to be legal.
PHILPOTT: I'll end with a bonus point. A major winnowing of presidential candidates usually happens after Iowa and New Hampshire vote. But with Texas looming just a month later, Delisi says more candidates than usual may hang on for a chance at a comeback here.
DELISI: They're still focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, but they understand that as the process gets going, they need to have infrastructure here. So when they catch their moment, they want to be ready for it here.
PHILPOTT: So enjoy the caucuses, have fun in New Hampshire, but pay attention to what happens in Texas. For NPR News, I'm Ben Philpott in Austin. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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