After Biden's debate performance, the presidential race is unchanged
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).
Still, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats, and national polls are far less important than in the most competitive states. A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states. They, in general, lean more conservative than the country at large because Democratic votes are concentrated on the coasts.
A race likely to be decided on the margins
Since the debate, on average, polls have shown Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a couple of weeks for public opinion to settle after a major political event — and the changes have been within the margin of error.
Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.
That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.
Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote
When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April. Professor Cornel West, running as an independent, got 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2%.
A significant area of concern for Biden is younger voters. Biden drops 13 points with Gen Z/Millennials when third-party candidates are factored in.
In fact, 1 in 5 Gen Z/Millennials choose a third-party candidate when the option is offered, higher than any other age group. But they are the least-likely age group to say they are definitely going to vote.
Biden is actually being buoyed by high-propensity voters. That’s a change from past election cycles when low-turnout elections were thought to favor Republicans.
Trump and Biden are tied, 45% to 45%, with the voters who say they are definitely voting. But Biden is doing better with older votes and white voters with college degrees than he did in 2020. Traditionally, those are two groups that have had among the highest participation rates of any voting blocs.
Biden’s approval rating overall is 43%, but it jumps to 47% with those who say they are definitely voting.
If not Biden, who else?
This question may be at the heart of why even more Democratic officials have not called for Biden to step aside.
At this point, no other Democrat tested does better and all are statistically tied with Trump, too.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom mirrors Biden at 50% to 48% over Trump. And Trump and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are at 49% to 49%.
So there is no clear Democratic alternative, though, as Democrats who have called for Biden to step aside would argue, those candidates could all make the case more coherently for themselves and the party.
Pollsters also expect that Trump will likely get a bounce from the Republican convention, as is the case traditionally in the days and weeks following a convention. That may set off yet another round of Democratic concerns and calls for Biden to step aside in the month until the Democrats’ convention in Chicago in August.
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The survey of 1,309 adults was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by phone, text and online and in both English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Transcript
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Despite President Biden's dismal debate performance two weeks ago, the race for the presidency remains unchanged.
SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
That's the big takeaway from a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out this morning.
MARTÍNEZ: Joining us to discuss the results of the poll is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. So is all that Democratic angst unfounded?
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Well, you know, I mean, there's still a lot for Democrats to be concerned about, clearly, with the way Biden is able to present himself. But despite that bad debate performance, as you noted, and the multiple Democratic members who now say they're worried about Biden at the top of the ticket, the race is statistically unchanged according to our poll. It found that Biden actually gained a point from last month's Marist survey when it was 49-49 - dead heat between him and Trump. Now it's Biden ever so narrowly ahead 50 to 48. Biden does slip a little when third parties are introduced, with Trump ahead by just one point. But listen to what we're talking about here. Two points, one point, all of that is within the poll's margin of error, as this race has been the entire time. And that's maybe the biggest conclusion here that nothing has really changed wildly since the debate.
MARTÍNEZ: So how is he doing this?
MONTANARO: Well, President Biden is buoyed by older voters and college-educated white voters in particular. You know, this was true before the debate. It appears they've mostly stuck with him. And this is different than 2020, when Trump won college-educated white men, for example. These groups, in large measure, dislike Trump a lot. Importantly, they are among the highest-propensity voters. You know they vote at some of the highest rates of any group. So unlike with other groups Biden is struggling with - for example, younger voters, nonwhite voters - they're not likely to stay home this group. You know, with younger voters and nonwhite voters, especially younger Latino and Black men, it isn't so much Biden versus Trump as it is Biden versus the couch.
MARTÍNEZ: Then, Domenico, other surveys have found that President Biden has slipped a little bit. So how do we square all of these things together?
MONTANARO: Well, you know, what pollsters say - and we all know this - is we're in a really hyperpolarized landscape. People have very locked-in views of both of these men. Even though other national surveys, you're seeing the difference, you know, really be so marginal. You know, the - our poll and others generally have about a three- to four-point margin of error, meaning the results could be three points higher, could be three points lower. We can't tell how other polls are being conducted or weighting, you know, their surveys, but they might be conducting them somewhat slightly differently.
Within our poll, the one thing that is really important and notable is that two-thirds of Americans say what's more concerning is to have a president who does not tell the truth than to have one who's too old to do the job. Sixty-eight said that not telling the truth was a bigger problem. So even though we certainly saw in the survey that a majority of people think Biden doesn't have the mental fitness to be president, a majority say he does have the character to be president, when a majority say that Trump does not.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So if it winds up not being President Biden, what do the polls say about the other potential Democratic replacements?
MONTANARO: Yeah. This was really interesting because everyone does about the same as Biden. You know, California Governor Gavin Newsom did exactly the same as Biden, 50 to 48, when we tested him. Vice President Harris was at 50-49 over Trump. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was tied. Newsom did slightly better with independents than Harris and Whitmer. And, you know, he's been on Fox News quite a bit, so there might be some exposure there to those voters. Of course, any of those candidates certainly have more of a capability of prosecuting the case against former President Trump coherently and defending themselves, and that's something that Biden has really struggled with and a big reason why so many Democrats, you know, who want him to step aside say that he should.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR political correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Thanks a lot.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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