Anxiety Grows As Conditions Worsen In Afghanistan
Hassina Sarwari is waiting to go home. She fled her city when the Taliban captured it more than a month ago. They ransacked her house, burned down her office and stole her laptop and passport.
Sarwari is a prominent women's rights activist from Kunduz, in northern Afghanistan.
Afghan government forces have since regained control of the city, but she says it's still too dangerous for her and her children to return. She has heard the Taliban are threatening to execute her in public.
For now, Sarwari is taking refuge in the Afghan capital, Kabul, though she still doesn't feel safe.
"Even my children have been threatened because of me," she says. "Everyone is worried about me."
The Taliban victory in Kunduz and their significant territorial gains this year have shocked many in Afghanistan. Fourteen years after a U.S.-led invasion supplanted the Taliban, and after many billions of dollars of American investment, a painful question is asserting itself: Is Afghanistan falling apart?
Certainly, deep anxiety is taking hold there, and it's driven by many more issues than the Taliban.
To see that, you only have to step into Kabul.
The United Nations no longer allows its staff to walk the streets. Homes and offices have long been heavily fortified. The concrete blast barriers and swirls of razor wire are even taller and thicker these days. There are many guards, and many guns.
Two military helicopters pass low overhead. Some people here call these "Kabul cabs." Foreign diplomats and military officials use them to get around town, avoiding suicide bombs and traffic jams.
Activists protest in Kabul against Taliban militants who stoned an Afghan woman to death after accusing her of adultery.
Not far away, a man caked in black dust is sewing up big sacks of coal. Kabul's preparing for winter. Coal merchant Zelgai Samadzada says his sales this year have plummeted.
Everyone's worried about the future, he says. "Afghanistan is heading towards a crisis. Every day, it's getting worse."
When President Obama recently announced that the few thousand U.S. troops who remain in Afghanistan will stay on for now, many Afghans were relieved. But Samadzada says this doesn't address the real problem, which he sees as Afghanistan's divided and ineffective government.
"We don't see the need for the American presence," he says. "We need our own powerful and sovereign government."
In Kabul's teeming outdoor money market, men clutching bundles of cash mill around, waiting for buyers. Anxiety's creeping in here, too.
The national currency, the afghani, has dropped 12 percent against the dollar in a year. Currency dealer Mohammad Fahim says a lot of storekeepers now convert their daily earnings into dollars every night.
"This is wartime," he says. "No one trusts the afghani currency."
Across town, a throng of protesters blockades the Ministry of Labor. The Afghan government says the unemployment rate is about 25 percent, though it can't be sure because many areas aren't under its control.
Afghanistan's currency has fallen by 12 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past year. Some Afghan money changers now prefer to covert their earnings to dollars.
Anxiety about jobs runs very deep. At least 120,000 Afghans are believed to have migrated to Europe this past year. One protester, Hussein Binesh, was tempted to leave, too. Staying home has got him nowhere in his job hunt.
A Kabul University graduate, he says he has been looking in vain pretty much every day for two years. Now more than ever, getting a job is about who you know, he says.
"The basic problem is this," he says. "I haven't any connection with a member of parliament or a minister or a person who has power."
Rangin Dadfar Spanta, who was the foreign minister and national security adviser in Afghanistan's previous government, is also anxious about what's going on. He says when he left office last year, the street price of one Kalashnikov was about $500, but now it has risen to $1,500.
"Why is that the case?" he asks.
Spanta discovered the answer recently, when he went back to his hometown in western Afghanistan and met local leaders and tribal elders.
"All these people have begun to buy guns and ammunition," he says.
Spanta has noticed something else. He says there is "a kind of tendency here in Afghanistan of building militias, a revitalization of warlordism in Afghanistan."
The return of private militias led by Afghan warlords weakens the authority of the state, he says. And a weak state "means a failing state."
Ashraf Haidari, director-general of policy and strategy at Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry, dismisses any suggestion of a weak state.
"Absolutely not, no," he says. "This is not a failing state. This is a succeeding state. We have a strategy. We have a plan. We have policies that have been strengthened, based on the experience of the past 14 years, based on lessons learned."
Despite widespread public anxiety about jobs, security, an ailing economy and the return of warlords and militia, Afghanistan has made a lot of progress since the U.S. and its allies drove out the Taliban. There are new roads. Many more people are getting educated. Life expectancy's up. Infant mortality's down. People here don't generally believe the Taliban could take control of the entire country.
Yet Haidari says they are anxious that those achievements are being jeopardized because the international community is gradually withdrawing from Afghanistan, and it's just too soon.
"That is why it is important for the international community to stay the course," he says, "to help us build on what we have together achieved over the past 14 years at a cost of thousands of international forces, and probably tens of thousands of Afghan forces and Afghan civilians."
Sarwari, the woman's right's activist, takes a bleaker view. She, too, saw people arming themselves in her home city, Kunduz, before she fled.
"It will cause big tension in Afghanistan which finally will lead to civil war," she warns. "A small argument will cause killings and revenge."
It's worrying, she says. "We Afghans don't have any hope anymore."
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Transcript
RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:
After 14 years of American and international troops and billions spent, bad news is still coming out of Afghanistan. The Taliban is active in half the country. The Islamic State is mobilizing. There's an exodus of young Afghans to Europe. In the capital, Kabul, NPR's Philip Reeves has been finding out what Afghans think.
PHILIP REEVES, BYLINE: Hassina Sarwari is waiting to go home. She fled her city in northern Afghanistan when the Taliban captured it. They ransacked her house, burned down her office.
HASSINA SARWARI: (Speaking Dari).
REEVES: And stole her laptop and passport, she says. Sarwari's a prominent women's rights activist from Kunduz. Afghan government forces regained Kunduz weeks ago.
SARWARI: (Speaking Dari).
REEVES: Sarwari says it's still too dangerous for her and her children to return. She's heard the Taliban's threatening to execute her in public if she falls into their hands. Sarwari's taking refuge here in the capital, Kabul.
SARWARI: (Speaking Dari).
REEVES: She doesn't feel safe here, either. The Taliban's victory in Kunduz and their territorial gains this year have shocked many in Afghanistan. Deep anxiety is taking hold here. To see that, step outside into Kabul. The United Nations no longer allows staff to walk these streets. Homes and offices in Kabul have long been heavily fortified. The blast barriers and swirls of razor wire are even taller and thicker these days. There are many guards and many guns.
(HELICOPTER WHIRRING)
REEVES: Two military helicopters pass low overhead. Some people here call these Kabul cabs. Foreign diplomats and military officials use them to get around town. That way, you avoid suicide bombs and traffic jams. A man caked in black dust sews up big sacks of coal. Kabul is preparing for winter. Coal merchant Zelgai Samadzada says his sales this year have plummeted.
ZELGAI SAMADZADA: (Through interpreter) Afghanistan is headed towards a crisis. Every day it's getting worse.
REEVES: When President Obama recently announced the few thousand U.S. troops who remain in Afghanistan will stay on for now, many Afghans were relieved. Samadzada says this doesn't address the real problem, Afghanistan's divided and ineffective government.
SAMADZADA: (Through interpreter) We don't see the need for the American presence. We need our own powerful and sovereign government.
REEVES: In Kabul's money market, men clutching bundles of notes mill around waiting for buyers. Anxiety is creeping in here too. The national currency, the Afghani, has dropped 12 percent against the dollar in a year. Currency dealer Mohammad Fahim says a lot of storekeepers now convert their daily earnings into dollars every night.
MOHAMMAD FAHIM: (Through interpreter) This is wartime. No one trusts the Afghan currency.
(SOUNDBITE OF PROTEST)
UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTER #1: (Yelling) We wants jobs.
UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTER #2: (Yelling) We want jobs.
REEVES: Across town, protesters blockade Afghanistan's Ministry of Labor. The Afghan government says the unemployment rate's about 25 percent, though it can't be sure because many areas aren't under its control. Anxiety about jobs runs every deep in Afghanistan these days. At least 120,000 Afghans are believed to have migrated to Europe this past year. One of these protesters, Hussein Binesh, was tempted to go too. Staying home has got him nowhere in the job hunt.
HUSSEIN BINESH: Two years I search. I...
REEVES: You search every day?
BINESH: Yes, yes, every day.
REEVES: More now than ever, getting a job is about who you know, says Binesh.
BINESH: The basic problem is this, that I haven't any connection with any member of Parliament or a person who have power. If we haven't any connection with a member of Parliament and minister or any person who have power, we couldn't find.
REEVES: We've come to the Kabul residents of Rangin Dadfar Spanta. Spanta was foreign minister and national security adviser in Afghanistan's previous government, which stood down last year. He's also anxious about what's going on. He says when he left office, the street price of one Kalashnikov was about $500.
RANGIN DADFAR SPANTA: But today, this is around $1,500. Why is that the case?
REEVES: Spanta discovered the answer to that question recently when he went back to his hometown in western Afghanistan and met local leaders and tribal elders.
SPANTA: All these people begin to buy guns and ammunition, et cetera, et cetera.
REEVES: Spanta's also noticed something else.
SPANTA: I'm recognizing since months a kind of tendency here in Afghanistan of building militia. There's a kind of revitalization of warlord-ism in Afghanistan.
REEVES: The return of private militias led by Afghan warlords weakens the authority of the states, says Spanta.
SPANTA: And weaker state mean the begin of the process in the countries like Afghanistan - mean failing state.
ASHRAF HAIDARI: Absolutely not, no. This is not a failing state. This is, in fact, a succeeding state.
REEVES: Ashraf Haidari's head of policy and strategy at Afghanistan's foreign ministry.
HAIDARI: We have a strategy. We have a plan. We have policies that have been strengthened based on the, you know, experience of the past 14 years, based on lessons learned.
REEVES: Despite public anxiety about job security, the ailing economy and the return of warlords and the militias, Afghanistan has made a lot of progress since the U.S. and its allies drove out the Taliban. There are new roads. Many more people are getting educated. Life expectancy's up. Infant mortality's down. People here don't generally believe the Taliban could take control of the entire country. Yet, Haidari says they are anxious those achievements are being jeopardized because the international community's gradually leaving Afghanistan, and it's just too soon.
HAIDARI: That's why it's important for the international community to stay the course and to help us build on what we have together achieved over the past 14 years at the cost of thousands of international forces, probably tens of thousands of Afghan forces and Afghan civilians.
SARWARI: (Speaking Dari).
REEVES: Hassina Sarwari, the woman's rights activist, takes a bleaker view. She too saw people arming themselves in her home city, Kunduz, before she fled.
SARWARI: (Speaking Dari).
REEVES: And she fears this could lead to civil war.
SARWARI: (Speaking Dari).
REEVES: "It's worrying," she says. "We Afghans don't have any hope anymore." Philip Reeves, NPR News, Kabul. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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