A coup, fake signatures and deepfakes are the latest conspiracy theories about 2024
President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the 2024 election followed weeks of pressure from Democrats concerned about his age and ability to win and serve another four years. But conspiracy theorists, right-wing influencers and even some Republican politicians immediately cast Biden’s resignation from the campaign as evidence of something more sinister.
The flurry of unverified rumors, speculation, and conspiracy theories comes as people are reeling from an onslaught of high-stakes political upheaval, from the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump on July 13 to Biden’s withdrawal from the race eight days later.
On the most extreme end, Charlie Kirk of the conservative youth organization Turning Point USA and far-right activist Laura Loomer suggested, without evidence, that Biden may be dying or already dead.
Others, including billionaire hedge fund boss Bill Ackman, raised doubts over the president’s letter announcing his decision, baselessly suggesting his signature wasn’t really his.
Republican politicians including U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado speculated about why Biden had not been seen in public since the announcement. On Tuesday, the president emerged from his beach house in Delaware where he had been isolating while recovering from Covid. He plans to address the nation on Wednesday.
“If this were a hostage situation, that letter would not qualify as proof of life,” Ackman posted on X on Sunday. (On Tuesday, Ackman shared a post with a video of Biden boarding Air Force One that read in part, “President Joe Biden seen in public for the first time in nearly a week, debunking conspiracy theories online.”)
Still others on the right framed Biden’s move as not his at all, but an anti-democratic coup orchestrated by shadowy forces including George Soros, a frequent target of conspiracy theories. In doing so, they cast doubt on the legitimacy of Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy — and, ultimately, on the election as a whole.
“The idea of selecting the Democrat[ic] Party's nominee because George Soros and Barack Obama and a couple of elite Democrats got in a smoke-filled room and decided to throw Joe Biden overboard, that is not how it works,” Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance told the crowd at a rally in Ohio on Monday.
Harris is also being targeted with baseless claims and conspiracy theories, including the long-running falsehood that she’s not really an American citizen, despite the fact she was born in Oakland, Calif. These “birther” smears came up when she ran for president in 2020 and were amplified by Trump, who previously promoted similar false claims about former president Barack Obama.
After any breaking news event, people search for answers that may not be available right away. That information void is a ripe environment for the spread of incorrect and incomplete information, as well as for exploitation by those seeking to gain clout or financial reward by amplifying the wildest theories, said Melissa Ryan, CEO of consulting firm CARD Strategies, which tracks disinformation and extremism.
“The thing to understand is for folks who live in this cinematic universe, things are never what they seem. It's always a false flag,” said Ryan.
When Biden called in to an event with Harris and campaign staff on Monday, some online commentators immediately began to speculate that it was not in fact Biden’s voice, but a deepfake created with artificial intelligence.
Some figures on the right had been pressing the narrative, without evidence, that Biden would be replaced on the Democratic ticket at the last minute since at least last fall. Much of that speculation claimed former first lady Michelle Obama or California Gov. Gavin Newsom would be the replacement nominee. Despite the discrepancy in the details, the reality of Biden stepping out has many of them feeling validated.
“It’s shocking how precisely right you can be, right down to the exact timing,” former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who was among those who had long suggested Biden would drop out, posted on X on Sunday.
There is little downside to this kind of speculation, which can boost an influencer’s profile whether or not their claims pan out.
“The truth is, you know, sometimes things change. It doesn't mean that, oh, the conspiracy theorists were right all along. It means everyone was working with the information they knew to be true,” Ryan said.
When speculation does line up with reality — even imperfectly — that creates opportunity to build trust and expand their audience.
“We've been seeing that in a lot of different contexts, whether it's in politics or astrology even on the internet, of people trying to say like, ‘Oh, we knew that this was going to happen,’ and that assigns some sort of authority to your voice,” said Danielle Lee Tomson, research manager at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public.
“Like, ‘I had inside information or some sort of analytic ability to understand that this was going on. So, you know, you can trust me on this future information that I might help you process or make sense of’,” she said.
Transcript
ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
In a span of eight days, we witnessed an assassination attempt against former President Trump and President Biden withdrawing from his reelection campaign. As people try to make sense of this tumultuous political landscape, rumors, speculation, and conspiracy theories are running wild. NPR's Shannon Bond is here to talk about what she's seeing. Hey, Shannon.
SHANNON BOND, BYLINE: Hey, Ari.
SHAPIRO: After any breaking news event, people look for answers that might not immediately be available. And we saw that after the shooting at the Trump rally. What have you seen since President Biden decided to bow out of the reelection campaign?
BOND: Right. I mean, of course, we know that pressure had been building on Biden to step aside for weeks. But for many people, you know, they've received this news immediately and cast it as something sinister going on. So sort of in the most extreme example, a number of far-right figures suggested, without evidence, that Biden may be dying or already dead. There were Republican politicians speculating about why he hadn't been seen in public until today.
Now, of course, Ari, we know the president was isolating in Delaware while he was recovering from COVID, and, you know, he said he plans to address the nation tomorrow. We've also heard folks framing his withdrawal as an anti-Democratic coup orchestrated by George Soros, who's often a target of right-wing conspiracy theories. Here is Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance at a campaign event yesterday.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
J D VANCE: The idea of selecting the Democrat Party's nominee because George Soros and Barack Obama and a couple of elite Democrats got in a smoke-filled room and decided to throw Joe Biden overboard - that is not how it works.
BOND: Now, what's interesting, Ari, is that many people on the right had been pressing this narrative without any evidence since at least last fall - that Biden was going to be replaced at the last minute - you know, speculating maybe it would be Michelle Obama on the ticket. And now many of them are feeling proven right, even though, of course, it's not Michelle Obama.
SHAPIRO: Are there any consequences for the influences or elected officials who float some of these more outlandish theories?
BOND: I mean, it can be beneficial to them. I spoke with Danielle Lee Tomson, who's a research manager at the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public. They study the spread of viral rumors. And she says this kind of situation creates an opportunity for these folks to claim authority and potentially grow their audience.
DANIELLE LEE TOMSON: Like, I had inside information or some sort of, like, analytic ability to understand that this was going on, so, you know, you can trust me on this future information that I might help you process or make sense of.
BOND: And there's little downside to this kind of speculation. It can boost your profile. It really doesn't matter when most of your claims don't pan out. But there can be tremendous upside if you do hit on something, even if all the details don't match up.
SHAPIRO: Well, it's more than three months until election day, and I'm going to make the bold prediction that there will be more surprises ahead. So what are you looking out for?
BOND: Yeah, I mean, I think, immediately, you know, even though Biden has now been seen in public, that may not tamp down some of these wilder conspiracy theories. I mean, just yesterday, he called into a campaign event, and people online immediately started claiming that it was not actually Biden's voice - it was an AI deepfake.
We're also already seeing baseless claims about Kamala Harris, you know, spreading as her campaign is ramping up, including this long-running falsehood that she is not really an American citizen, even though she was born here. You know, that's something that Trump has pushed before. And more broadly...
SHAPIRO: About Obama.
BOND: Exactly - and about Kamala Harris herself in 2020. More broadly, these attacks on her legitimacy, on, you know, this legitimacy of Biden's withdrawal - these are vehicles for Trump and his supporters to cast doubt on the integrity of the election, and that's something, of course, we have been seeing them do for years.
SHAPIRO: NPR's Shannon Bond - thank you.
BOND: Thanks, Ari. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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