Officials in China say new regulations will go into effect on Sept. 1 that tighten controls on the so-called "precursor" chemicals used to make street fentanyl. The powerful opioid is killing tens of thousands of people in the U.S. every year.
According to experts, chemical plants in China have emerged as major suppliers for Mexican drug cartels and other criminal gangs producing synthetic drugs, including fentanyl and methamphetamines.
The Biden administration described China's new rules - increasing government oversight on seven chemicals, including three compounds used to make illicit fentanyl - as a "valuable step forward" in the fight to curb U.S. overdose deaths.
"We're going to look for further progress on counter-narcotics and the flow of illicit synthetic drugs into the United States," said White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Thursday, during a press conference in Beijing.
In a statement earlier this month, the White House described China's latest regulations as part of a trend toward improved cooperation on narcotics that began last November when President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"This marks the third significant [regulatory] action by the PRC since President Biden met with President Xi and resumed bilateral counter-narcotics cooperation," said National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett.
Before the resumption of counter-narcotics talks in 2023, China suspended all drug-related cooperation with the U.S. because of diplomatic tensions over Taiwan and human rights issues.
White House drug czar Dr. Rahul Gupta also praised China's decision to re-engage on drug trafficking, noting in an August 6 statement that "dozens of deadly substances have now been [regulated] by the PRC."
But drug policy experts interviewed by NPR voiced skepticism about China's new fentanyl rules, questioning whether they will be backed with meaningful enforcement.
Tighter regulations on paper. What about enforcement?
John Coyne, an expert on criminal drug markets with the Australia Strategic Policy Institute, published an essay last week critical of China's new fentanyl precursor regulations, describing them as "little more than a public-relations stunt."
According to Coyne, a wide array of chemicals that can be used in illicit drug manufacture remain unregulated in China. He also said there's evidence Chinese officials are complicit in the fentanyl trade.
"There are links between some of these [chemical] companies and Chinese government officials and in fact they advertise those links on-line," Coyne told NPR. He's not alone in voicing doubts.
Last April, investigators for U.S. House subcommittee published evidence that Chinese government agencies actually subsidize the export of fentanyl precursors, accusations Chinese officials deny.
Speaking to NPR this week, a spokesman for the Republican majority staff that conducted the fentanyl investigation said it's troubling that Chinese subsidies of chemical firms exporting fentanyl-related chemicals remain in place.
They also said their investigators found no new evidence China plans to prosecute companies feeding the criminal fentanyl supply chain. Chinese officials didn't respond to an email requesting comment.
U.S. authorities say criminal organizations based in China have also emerged as major players in the money-laundering system that allows Mexican cartels to move drug profits around the world.
In June, the White House said it was a sign of progress that Chinese officials agreed to arrest one individual in China as part of a multi-national crackdown on fentanyl money-laundering.
Speaking on background because of the sensitivity of negotiations with China, a senior Biden Administration official told NPR these latest fentanyl chemical regulations are significant because they "give us a hook to push them to do more."
"We obviously think the PRC can do a lot more," the official said. "No single step is going to solve this problem, it’s a huge problem."
Putting the toothpaste back in the tube
Even if Chinese officials move to enforce regulations aimed at curbing fentanyl production, many experts said pinching off the supply of precursor chemicals may be impossible.
"It’s worth trying [but] I think the most likely outcome is there’s not any sustained interference with the ability to produce fentanyl," said Jonathan Caulkins, an expert on the fentanyl crisis at Carnegie Mellon University.
According to Caulkins, fentanyl precursor chemicals are relatively easy to produce and widely available. He said controlling every compound that can produce a version of fentanyl is like "putting toothpaste back in the tube."
Greg Midgette, an expert on criminal drug markets at the University of Maryland, agrees. He said identifying and curbing the sources of fentanyl chemicals would be a daunting challenge even for China's powerful bureaucracy.
"Those things are very hard to trace," he said. "We'd probably see adaptation either within China or in some other state where precursors are not as well regulated."
Still, experts told NPR it makes sense for the U.S. to maintain pressure on criminal drug cartels, their supply chains, and countries like China and Mexico where they operate. Such measures can help reduce corruption and criminal activity and bring a measure of justice, they said.
Administration officials, meanwhile, said convincing China to resume narcotics cooperation and convincing Beijing to boost regulations are part of a wider fentanyl campaign.
Other pieces of that effort include the targeting and arrest of top Mexican drug cartel leaders. Some public health experts also believe expanding health and addiction programs have finally slowed fentanyl deaths.
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