Polling and politics go hand-in-hand, with regular surveys of public opinion being a vital tool for campaigns and voters alike.
But with so many polls coming out so quickly these days, it can be hard to make sense of them, especially when they disagree.
So let's take a (ridiculous) hypothetical contest: Mayor McCheese is running against Frank Underwood for county commissioner. And they're neck-and-neck.
A poll might come out today suggesting Underwood is up by 5 pecentage points. A big margin! Except a separate pollster showed McCheese winning yesterday. Last week's survey showed Underwood winning by 0.5 percent (within the margin of error).
How does the average voter make sense of all this?
Catawba College professor Michael Bitzer says it's best to look at these polls as individual moments in time.
“That's what polls tend to be more focused on: to give a snapshot in time of the particular electorate based on some characteristics that we think may be the composition of the overall electorate come November 8th,” Bitzer says.
It's like taking a photograph of public opinion. And it's a really tough thing to do. And if you don't do it the right way, you could end up with a poll that's just dead wrong.
So, how does a pollster create a good poll, an accurate survey of public opinion?
Elon University Poll Director Jason Husser says there's a lot to keep an eye on.
“Normally when we're looking for good polls, we want fair, unbiased questions that don't seem to be leaning one way or another to one party," Husser says. "That's sort of the most basic level. It's also important to get a sample that's generally representative of political parties involved, as well as the racial groups in the country and other important characteristics.”
Ideally, you need carefully-worded questions that won't try to sway the respondent's answer. And you need to talk to a lot of people who represent the voting public. To get the most accurate survey, you might need to drill down into gender, race, educational background, political affiliation, and more.
Husser says the challenges have been compounded in recent years because people simply don't answer their phones as often as they used to. That's especially true for millenials.
“There were points where it was almost like one out of four people were answering their phones. It's really, really lucky now to even get one out of 10 to answer a phone call," Husser says. "That means the cost of surveys have gone up and it's harder and harder to get the right numbers of people from each group to talk to you.”
Still, good pollsters make it happen. And good surveys – horserace polls, questions about important issues, and more – can be incredibly valuable to the public discourse, and to political campaigns.
But that polling data can actually feed back and potentially influence voter behavior. According to Michael Bitzer, that can be good or bad, depending on the circumstance.
“If it's a close race, perhaps that might energize them to say 'boy if I can get out and if I can get a couple of my friends to vote for my candidate they may actually win,'" Bitzer says. "But if it's one of those polls that shows a particular candidate with 65 percent of the vote and the opposition has 35 percent – and you're supporting the opposition – the reality is why would I want to support somebody who looks like they're going to lose?"
Ultimately, both of our experts say voters should look at good polls not on an individual basis, but in the aggregate. While a single survey is only a snapshot, looking at a greater number of them can add valuable context to patterns and trends over time.
And Jason Husser says, if a single poll comes out that doesn't look good for your candidate, don't panic.
“It's important for people to not think the sky is falling when their preferred candidate isn't doing well in one particular poll that came out," Husser says. "Minor perturbations can change that three or four points on any given day. So don't get too hung up if one candidate is up by a point or down by a point because it's really going to be too close to call on election day in that context.”
So, when you hear your favorite news outlet (WFDD, right?) reporting on a poll, remember that it's just one poll, and take a look at a larger group of them for some context. Sites like Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight do a great job of aggregating trusted polls to get a better look at where the electorate stands.
And whichever way you're leaning this November, remember: those polls are showing some close races in North Carolina this year, so get out there and make your voice heard.
Do you have a question about the political process? Let us know by submitting yours below!
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