Democrats' total control over Oregon politics could end with the race for governor
No state in the country elects Democratic governors more reliably than Oregon, but every streak has its end.
This year, after nearly 40 years of dominance, Democrats are staring down the possibility their reign is coming to a close. With ballots in this vote-by-mail state already heading out to voters, polls show Democrat Tina Kotek, a former state House speaker, running neck-and-neck with Republican Christine Drazan, the previous state House GOP leader.
Oregonians are angsty after years of COVID-19 lockdowns, and amid a worsening homelessness crisis that has been particularly acute in Portland, the state's largest city. And they're not fans of outgoing Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat whom polls show has the lowest approval rating of any governor in the country.
The candidates
That's one hurdle for Kotek, 56. She worked closely with the governor to pass progressive legislation over nine years as speaker of the state House, but has begun to attack Brown's record in ads and public appearances as she works to create distance.
"Oregon can do great things," she said recently. "We have not had the leadership in our governor's office over the last several years to make that happen, and I am tired of it."
Another challenge is Betsy Johnson, 71, the former Democratic state senator who grew wary enough of Oregon's progressive trajectory that she jettisoned her party registration last year. She's now mounting a well-funded centrist campaign for governor that, though unlikely to succeed, could siphon away Democratic votes.
"Our screwed up political system doesn't offer any good choices," Johnson says in one of the many campaign ads that have smothered the state's airwaves since early this year. "I'm not captive to the far left or the far right."
And then there's Drazan, 50, a two-term lawmaker who smiles sunnily on the campaign trail as she tears into the long legislative records of Kotek and Johnson, painting the two women as one and the same.
"Our state is in a very, very difficult position after a decade of single-party control," Drazan often says. "I ask Oregonians: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? If the answer is no, then the answer is change."
The money and influence
Oregon has no campaign contribution limits, and the three candidates have raised more than $55 million in total this year, shattering previous records. That's partly because of huge national interest from the Republican Governors Association and Democratic Governors Association, which have poured money into Oregon.
Nike co-founder Phil Knight, a billionaire and Oregon's richest man, is taking unprecedented interest in defeating Democrats this year. He spent $3.75 million backing Johnson, and, when her polling numbers didn't budge, cut a $1 million check to Drazan.
The race is tight enough that Democrats are calling in reinforcements --including President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
"Oregon is viewed as a state that has always been in the forefront of change — positive change," Biden said in a recent stop in Portland. "That's why this race going to matter so much — not only for 2022, but for 2024."
Republicans are bringing in outside help, too.
Drazan has acknowledged Biden won the 2020 election, and has not courted an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Instead she's campaigned with politicians whose path to office she hopes to emulate: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Republicans who won over left-leaning states.
"I believe in her, I believe in her plan," Hogan said at a campaign event in September. "I believe the people of Oregon are fed up and ready to try something different."
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Transcript
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For decades, Oregon has been a reliable Democratic stronghold. But this year's governor's race is anything but typical. A well-funded independent candidate is scrambling the state's political math. Oregon Public Broadcasting's Dirk VanderHart reports.
DIRK VANDERHART, BYLINE: For much of this year, Oregonians have been virtually unable to avoid Betsy Johnson. TV sets around the state are jammed with images of Johnson's saucer-sized sized glasses and her booming sales pitch about political dysfunction.
(SOUNDBITE OF POLITICAL AD)
BETSY JOHNSON: So we need big change. I'm not captive to the far left or the far right.
VANDERHART: To some observers, this is a message that has the power to upend politics in Oregon, which has reliably elected Democratic governors for more than three decades. It's not so much that Johnson is a threat to win the governor's office. Polling shows her trailing Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. But the former state senator has built a mountain of cash since leaving the Democratic Party last year to mount an independent run for governor. And Johnson's got that ubiquitous advertising aimed at attracting moderate voters. The combination has Democrats worried. That includes environmentalists like Doug Moore. He says the Republican - again, that's Drazan - could be primed for an upset if she wins.
DOUG MOORE: It's because of a fluke with a three-way race, not because Oregonians believe that she would be good on the environment. In fact, I'm very confident that they do not believe that.
VANDERHART: It's been 40 years since Oregon last put a Republican in the governor's mansion. But races here are typically close, settled by a margin of fewer than 10 points. And recent polling suggests Drazan has a real chance to break the streak. The former House Republican leader is neck and neck with Kotek, a Democrat and previous longtime House speaker. The race is brimming with historic potential. It's the first competitive three-way contest featuring all-female candidates in the state's history and maybe the nation's. And Kotek could become the first openly lesbian governor in the country. But to Drazan, the race is all about one thing. She says virtually nothing is working these days in Oregon.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
CHRISTINE DRAZAN: Our state is in a very, very difficult position after a decade of single-party party control. I ask Oregonians, are you better off today than you were four years ago? If the answer is no, then the answer is change.
VANDERHART: That message of change is well-timed. Public opinion polls show most Oregonians think the state is headed in the wrong direction. They're worried about crime, homelessness and a rising cost of living. They're also not fans of outgoing Governor Kate Brown, the Democrat who has among the lowest approval ratings of any current governor. All of that is potentially bad news for Kotek, an ally of Brown. Sensing trouble, Kotek has been increasingly critical of the outgoing governor.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
TINA KOTEK: I know that we can solve the biggest challenges facing our state. I know we can because Oregon can do great things. We have not had the leadership in our governor's office over the last several years to make that happen, and I am tired of it.
VANDERHART: Democrats are so worried about this year's race that they've called in more firepower. President Joe Biden made a pit stop in Portland recently to phone bank for Kotek and speak to her supporters.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Because guess what? What a governor does matters. It matters. It matters. It matters. It matters.
(CHEERING)
VANDERHART: There are other indications Republicans have momentum. Billionaire Nike co-founder Phil Knight spent nearly $4 million this year backing Johnson, the independent. But with her polling numbers not budging, Knight recently changed teams. He's now donated at least $1 million to Drazan. Kotek is also not the only candidate bringing in outside help. Drazan has campaigned with Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, both Republicans who were elected in left-leaning states. Hogan says Drazan is primed to follow in their footsteps.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
LARRY HOGAN: I believe in her. I believe in her plan. I believe that the people of Oregon are completely fed up and ready to try something different.
VANDERHART: Still, Republicans have reason to be wary. They've seen plenty of close races over the years that ended in defeat. It's also not clear Johnson's candidacy will help Drazan enough in a state where Democrats handily outnumber Republicans. The independent's impact on the race won't be understood until Election Day. In the meantime, the candidates are rapidly running out of time to make their case. Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, and ballots are already on their way to voters.
For NPR News, I'm Dirk VanderHart in Portland.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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