Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are battling it out for first place in the Iowa GOP caucuses next month.
But beneath the battle for first place, two other sharp-elbowed candidates are fighting hard here: Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.
The two Florida Republicans have almost no shot at winning Iowa, but their respective superPACs and campaigns are duking it out on the airwaves.
"Over the last three years, Rubio has missed important national security hearings, and missed more total votes than any other senator," says an ad airing this week in Iowa produced by a superPAC allied with Bush. "Politics first, that's the Rubio way."
And a superPAC for Rubio is pushing right back, in an ad calling Bush "desperate" and defending the senator on national security. "The fact: Rubio has attended more national security briefings than any other candidate."
So why are two Republicans, who are nearly certain to lose Iowa, battling it out here?
"If you come strong through Iowa in the top three or four, I think you really do have some momentum going on," said Ken Anderson, a retiree and lifelong Republican who is still undecided. He attended a Rubio town hall in Marshalltown on Wednesday and said he gets why Bush and Rubio are going after each other even though they're both running way behind.
That's it: momentum.
A strong third-place showing for a candidate like Bush or Rubio could change the momentum for them going into New Hampshire, another critical early state with its primary just one week after Iowa.
Even locked-in Trump supporters, like retired veteran Larry Warnell, say a third-place victory could be a good thing in Iowa "because in the last couple of elections, No. 1s never finished, I don't think."
The last Republican candidate to win both the Iowa caucuses and the nomination was George W. Bush in 2000.
While candidates like Trump and Cruz have established themselves as "outsiders" in this race, the remaining candidates are still jockeying for support from more traditional Republican voters in Iowa, like 37-year-old Justin Chappell.
He's a small-business owner who describes himself as a moderate. Chappell is still deciding among Bush, Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
"It'll be interesting to see who all of the so-called moderates, which one gets the most votes," he said.
J. Ann Selzer, the most respected pollster in Iowa, says the most important thing a candidate can still do is win. But if Cruz and Trump take first and second place, Selzer says, the third-place finisher can still be meaningful if — and only if — the rest of the pack is far behind.
"Who can be a substantial third place? Because if you're just just 1 point ahead of the next person or the next person or the next person, then nobody gets that third ticket," she said. "There's no third ticket out of Iowa. It's a virtual tie."
No candidate would claim to be running for third place, but it may explain why candidates like Bush and Rubio have spent millions on the airwaves. And why they both plan to be back in Iowa next week.
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Transcript
RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:
The much-talked-about Iowa caucus are looming - really now - just - we're really talking pretty soon. And on the Republican side, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are in a heated battle for first place. But some of the candidates who don't have a great shot at winning Iowa are still fighting hard in that state. NPR's Susan Davis went there to find out why.
SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Two sharp-elbowed candidates are trying to knock each other out of contention, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. Here's a taste of the Iowa airwaves this week, courtesy of a super PAC supporting Bush.
(SOUNDBITE OF POLITICAL AD)
UNIDENTIFIED MAN #1: Over the last three years, Rubio has missed important national security hearings and missed more total votes than any other senator. Politics first, that's the Rubio away.
DAVIS: And a super PAC for Rubio is pushing right back.
(SOUNDBITE OF POLITICAL AD)
UNIDENTIFIED MAN #2: Desperate candidates say desperate things. And Jeb Bush is desperate. His attacks on Marco Rubio have been dismissed and debunked by our own Senator Grassley. The fact, Rubio's attended more classified national security briefings this year than any other candidate.
DAVIS: So why are two Republicans who are nearly certain to lose Iowa battling it out here? One man who has an answer is Ken Anderson. He's retired and a lifelong Republican and still undecided. Anderson was at a Marco Rubio town hall in Marshalltown yesterday. It makes sense to him why Bush and Rubio are going at it even though they're both running way behind.
KEN ANDERSON: If you come strong through Iowa in the top three or four, I think you really do have some momentum going on.
DAVIS: That's it. A strong third-place showing for a candidate like Bush or Rubio could change the momentum going into New Hampshire, another critical early state with a primary just one week after Iowa. Even locked-in Trump supporters like Larry Warnell say a third-place victory could be a good thing in Iowa.
LARRY WARNELL: It could be because in the last couple elections, number ones have never finished, I don't think.
DAVIS: Warnell's right. The last Republican candidate to win the Iowa caucuses and the nomination was George W. Bush in 2000. And while candidates like Trump and Cruz have established themselves as outsiders in this race, the remaining candidates are still jockeying for support for more traditional Republican voters in Iowa, like Justin Chappell. He's a small business owner, and he describes himself as a moderate. Chappell's still deciding between Bush, Rubio, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie or Ohio Governor John Kasich.
JUSTIN CHAPPELL: It'll be interesting to see of all of the so-called moderates, you know, which one gets the most votes.
DAVIS: Ann Selzer is the most respected pollster in Iowa.
ANN SELZER: The most important thing a candidate can do is when. And Iowa's the first place that you can win something.
DAVIS: If Cruz and Trump take first and second place, Selzer says the third-place finisher can still be meaningful if the rest of the pack is far behind.
SELZER: Who can be a substantial third-place? Because if you're just one point ahead of the next person or the next person and the next person, then nobody gets that third ticket. There is no third ticket. It's a virtual tie.
DAVIS: And while no candidate would claim to be running for third place, it may explain why candidates like Bush and Rubio have spent millions on the airwaves and why they plan to be back in Iowa next week. Susan Davis, NPR News, Des Moines. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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