Examining the state of Hamas on 3 fronts: troops, governance and narrative

Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear about what "victory" in the war in Gaza looks like to him. Almost immediately after the attacks of October 7, the Israeli prime minister vowed to "crush and destroy" Hamas.

As the death toll of Israel's operation has grown, Netanyahu has repeatedly pointed to that goal — the destruction of Hamas — to justify continuing the war.

In an interview with CNBC last month, Netanyahu argued that an operation in Rafah was essential to Israeli security, saying: "Those who tell us stop the war now, leave Hamas in place, leave those four battalions in Rafah, are basically saying, 'Allow Hamas to regroup, recapture Gaza and threaten you again.'"

So it came as a bit of a shock when President Joe Biden announced last week thatIsrael had offered a cease-fire proposal that could lead to a permanent end to the war. The implication being that the war would end before Hamas is completely eliminated.

Publicly, Israel's position is murky. Netanyahu's governing coalition — and his political survival — depend on ultra-nationalist politicians who will not accept ending the war before Hamas is completely eliminated.

So how close is Israel to its stated goal? NPR's reporting from Israel and Gaza suggests it is still a long way off.

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The current state of Hamas

For nearly 8 months, Hamas has been under the attack of Israeli air strikes and ground operations, and there has been a dramatic clampdown on supplies headed into the Gaza Strip.

Analysts say that Israel has dealt a major blow to Hamas infrastructure. It hardly fires rockets into Israel anymore and many of its tunnels have been destroyed, though estimates vary on how many are left. Yet Hamas still has boots on the ground.

NPR's international correspondent in Jerusalem Daniel Estrin has been speaking with Israeli officials, one of whom said about half of Hamas combatants remain active. Other Israeli analysts say the number is even higher.

And former Israeli national security advisor Eyal Hulata says that even with their compromised structure, Hamas won't be disappearing anytime soon.

"This is not an army that could be crippled once the command chain is broken," Hulata said. "Terrorist organizations don't surrender. They resurrect, and we should expect that to continue. As long as Hamas feels the time is on his side, this is what we will see."

Then there's the question of governance: Is Hamas still able to govern Gaza and control civilian affairs with a mass displacement of residents, the humanitarian crisis and Israeli troops on the ground?

NPR producer Anas Baba has documented how, among the turmoil in Gaza, there remain committees of guards that prevent chaos and theft during the war. These committees are quietly believed to be associated with Hamas, because Hamas would challenge any alternative Palestinian group trying to take its place ruling the population.

Hamas government media spokesman Ismail Thawabteh told NPR that Hamas still has a civil servant workforce of about 25,000 employees, which includes new hires to replace those who have been killed in the war.

The group has managed to disperse partial salaries to its civil servants twice throughout the course of the war. And its economy ministry is imposing controls on prices of goods and preventing price gouging since food and goods are so scarce.

What may come next

Then there is the battle of who can control the narrative surrounding the war. What image can Hamas project eight months in?

Inside Gaza, Palestinians perceive Israel's war to be against them, not against Hamas. Sami Mahdi is affiliated with Hamas' rival, Fatah, and says he believes Israel is not interested in eliminating Hamas, but instead wants to destroy Gaza and its civilians.

Israel and the U.S. accuse Hamas of manipulating the war to its benefit, embedding among civilian areas and benefiting from the international pressure on Israel when civilians are killed in airstrikes.

Israeli analyst Michael Milshtein says Israel cannot defeat Hamas without a prolonged occupation of Gaza: "I think that today we must be frank enough to admit that we have no willingness — and we have not even a capacity to promote — the total occupation of Gaza. So we have no other choice but to promote the deal right now." And in Gaza, former Hamas adviser Ahmed Yousef offers his own assessment of Hamas, saying the scale of the October 7 attack gave Israel a pretext for the "annihilation of the Palestinian people."

So can Hamas stay in power as the war continues? Listen to Consider This for more analysis and on-the-ground reporting.