Vice President Harris has had a three-week launch to her campaign that most candidates can only dream of. Democratic enthusiasm is off the charts, money is flowing in, and volunteers are flocking to sign up to help get out the vote ahead of Nov. 5.
But campaign veterans say this honeymoon — like those that came before it — will end. They always do.
“There’s definitely a new energy that’s there. It’s just a question of, will that energy still be there after Labor Day?” said Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University.
Harris has yet to lay out a lot of detailed policies, sit down for a tough media interview, or debate her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump.
And to this point, Trump and his campaign have struggled to figure out attacks on Harris that will stick. “So far they’ve been easy, because they’ve been disjointed or outrageous, but she’s going to have to prepare for an attack that lands,” Gillespie said.
Clinton 2016: a campaign that didn’t have a honeymoon
No one expected Harris would have it this easy, said Robby Mook, who ran Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
Mook said Harris stepped into the role so late in the game that there’s still a novelty to her candidacy — and she escaped having to go through a bruising 18-month primary.
“When you launch a campaign, normally you're expected to kind of have everything on day one,” Mook said, explaining Harris has been given unusual latitude because of the unusual way she was nominated. Her campaign website still doesn’t have a policy page, for instance.
“All that said, at some point she's gonna sit down and have interviews and get hard questions. The campaign is gonna make a mistake. These things happen,” he said.
The Clinton campaign arguably never had a honeymoon. “We had to make clear to the team right away that this was just gonna be really hard. It’s hard to win. It was going to be hard to elect the first woman president. It was going to be hard to get a third term for Democrats in the White House,” Mook recalled.
Harris bypassed a challenge that many women face in politics
Harris is now running to be the first female president — but she was able to bypass one of the biggest challenges female candidates face, said Amanda Hunter, with the non-partisan group Gender on the Ballot.
“Women are often punished when they are perceived to be showing ambition in politics,” Hunter said. But in Harris’ case, she stood by Biden right up until he stepped aside and endorsed her, which Hunter said changed the way that voters perceive her.
“She was taking on this position in an almost service role and was not showing ambition herself. And that is one reason that voters may have a different reaction than if it were a woman stepping up and saying, 'I want to run for president,'” Hunter said.
Harris campaign says it is not taking anything for granted
Harris inherited a campaign team made tough and resilient for having survived a grueling month where their candidate, President Biden, was effectively pushed out by his own party.
"Think of what this campaign just went through in the last month,” Mook said. “When they have a bad day or two or three, or or a bad week, that's not going to feel like anything they haven't felt before."
A Harris campaign spokesman said the team is taking nothing for granted. “We believe this will be a very close election, decided by a very small number of voters, in just a few states,” said Kevin Munoz.
“That means wasting no time, and instead, using the recent momentum to relentlessly make our case to the hard to reach voters who have not made up their mind yet,” Munoz said.
For her part, Harris has been trying to prepare her currently ecstatic supporters for a time when it won’t be so fun.
“Listen, we also need to level-set,” she told cheering crowds at a rally in Philadelphia. “We are the underdogs in this race, but we have the momentum and I know exactly what we are up against.”
Romney 2012: a campaign where the honeymoon ended
When Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney trounced a sluggish then-President Barack Obama in their first debate in 2012, there was a moment where the Romney campaign felt like they were winning.
“You talk to many people the day after — you would’ve thought that we were the odds-on favorite to win that race,” said Kevin Madden, an adviser to Romney’s campaign.
But that honeymoon didn’t last long. “Within two weeks, the race was right back to where the fundamentals had it, which was an advantage to the incumbent,” he said.
In the 2024 campaign, Madden says the fundamentals point to a close race – leaving no room for error.
And Madden cautioned there could still be headwinds that no one can predict, such as another bad economic report or maybe a natural disaster.
In 2012, that was Superstorm Sandy, which walloped the East Coast and gave Obama the opportunity to demonstrate leadership in a crisis. Madden said he has no doubt that hurt Romney.
“When you asked [voters] was the Obama administration response to Hurricane Sandy viewed positively, and did it factor in their vote — it did,” he said.
NPR's Alejandra Marquez Janse and Jordan-Marie Smith contributed to this story.
Transcript
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Nobody alive has seen anything quite like the past few weeks in the presidential campaign. No party in modern times has swapped out presidential candidates so late. Veterans of past campaigns do see something familiar for Vice President Harris - a honeymoon. The candidate seems to do no wrong. The opposition throws a lot of charges out, but can't find any traction. Veterans of past campaigns expect to see something else that's familiar to them - the honeymoon's end. NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith has seen a lot.
TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: Everyone who runs for president eventually finds themselves in an unrelenting bad news cycle. Harris hasn't faced that yet, but Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, says it's coming - it always comes.
ANDRA GILLESPIE: There's definitely a new energy that's there. It's just a question of, will that energy still be there after Labor Day?
KEITH: Since Harris stepped in at the top of the Democratic ticket, former President Donald Trump and his campaign have struggled to figure out how to deal with Harris, but Gillespie says Trump is going to come at her with attacks.
GILLESPIE: So far, they've been easy because they've been disjointed or outrageous, but she's going to have to prepare for an attack that lands.
KEITH: Robby Mook, who ran Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, says no one expected Harris would have it this easy - but, he says, she's had some advantages. Democratic enthusiasm is off the charts. She didn't have to go through a bruising 18-month primary, and she stepped into the role so late in the game that there's still a novelty to her candidacy.
ROBBY MOOK: When you launch a campaign normally, you're expected to kind of have everything on day one, and I think she has a permission structure right now where she doesn't have to do that. All that said, at some point, she's going to sit down and have interviews and get hard questions. The campaign is going to make a mistake. These things happen.
KEITH: Mook worked on a campaign that arguably never had a honeymoon.
MOOK: We had to make clear to the team right away that this was just going to be really hard. It's hard to win. It was going to be hard to elect the first woman president. It was going to be hard to get a third term for Democrats in the White House.
KEITH: Now Harris is running to be the first female president, and she has already bypassed one of the biggest challenges female candidates face.
AMANDA HUNTER: Women are often punished when they are perceived to be showing ambition in politics.
KEITH: That's Amanda Hunter, with the nonpartisan group Gender on the Ballot. She says Harris stood by Biden right up until he stepped aside and endorsed her, which changed the way she was perceived by voters.
HUNTER: She was taking on this position in a almost service role, and was not showing ambition herself.
KEITH: For her part, Harris has been trying to prepare her currently ecstatic supporters for a time when it won't be so fun.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: And to all the friends, listen - we also need to level set. We are the underdogs in this race, but we have the momentum, and I know exactly what we are up against.
KEITH: Kevin Madden was an adviser to Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign. He recalls the first debate, which Obama clearly lost, and for a moment there, Madden said it felt like they were winning.
KEVIN MADDEN: You talk to many people the day after, you would have thought that we were the odds-on favorite to win that race. Within two weeks, the race was right back to where the fundamentals had it, which was a advantage to the incumbent.
KEITH: This campaign, Madden says the fundamentals point to a close race. Even though there is an influx of money and volunteers right now, he cautions there could be headwinds that no one can predict - another bad economic report, or maybe a natural disaster. In 2012, it was Superstorm Sandy.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST)
LAKSHMI SINGH: The hurricane that morphed into a superstorm is blamed now in 35 deaths in the U.S. According to the latest tally from the Associated Press, more than eight million people from Maine to North Carolina are without electricity.
KEITH: Next thing you know, President Obama was showing leadership in a crisis.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
BARACK OBAMA: And we will not forget. We will follow up to make sure that you get all the help that you need until you've rebuilt.
KEITH: Madden says he has no doubt that hurt Romney.
MADDEN: When you ask them, was the Obama administration response to Hurricane Sandy viewed positively, and did it factor in their vote, it did.
KEITH: In a close race, with so little time left until people start voting, Madden says there's just very little room for error. Tamara Keith, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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