Harris has momentum, but the race is still tight. Here are the paths to the presidency
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Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and the Democratic Party has coalesced around Vice President Harris, the political world has changed.
After Biden’s dismal debate performance in late June, swing-state polls showed a small, but significant decline for Biden, enough that Biden bowed out of the race. Since Harris’ entry, though, she has seen a surge across the most competitive states with far more Democratic enthusiasm, but it’s still a very close election, an NPR analysis finds, that could go either way.
Republican former President Donald Trump currently holds a 268-226 lead over Harris in the latest NPR Electoral Map of the most competitive states (see map above), just short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Trump had led in the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan before Biden exited, but now the states are pure toss-ups.
Trump's leads in the "Sun Belt" states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada have been sliced in half since Harris got in because of the increased Democratic enthusiasm and her appeal to younger and nonwhite voters. Still, Trump retains small but consistent leads. That could change if Harris continues her momentum, but at this point, they are ever so slightly in the "lean Republican" category.
This analysis is based on more than just polling. It's also informed by reporting from the field, conversations with campaigns and also considers the history of how states have voted in the past. We also include a map strictly based on polling (below). That shows a slightly closer 268-241 Trump lead.
For the state polling, NPR's analysis is based on surveys aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and DDHQ/The Hill. If a candidate had an average lead in both aggregators of 1 point or more, as of Friday afternoon, it is colored a shade of red for Trump or blue for Harris. If it was less than that, it’s yellow for "Toss Up."
Map based strictly on polling
This will change between now and Nov. 5, and the NPR maps will be updated periodically to reflect those changes. But for now this analysis is intended to give a rough overview of where the race currently stands since Harris has gotten in — and not necessarily where it will be in the end.
Paths to the White House
Even though Harris is down in the NPR Election Map, she has more potential paths to 270 than Trump does. Here's a look at how both could get there:
Harris
1. The Blue Wall: If Harris wins all three Blue Wall states, as well as the one congressional district in the Omaha, Neb., area that Biden won handily in 2020, she would be at 270 without any of the Sun Belt states (provided she wins all of the states that are leaning her direction and is currently leading). It's her easiest path to the White House, and because of that, these Blue Wall states are a key focus of the Harris campaign. It's also why there has been such a focus on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a potential Harris running mate.
2. The Sun Belt options: If Harris is able to win one or multiple Sun Belt states, she could make up for deficiencies in the Blue Wall. Her campaign is optimistic that she could turn the tide in the Sun Belt and points out that it has seen an uptick in not just donations, but volunteers in these states.
Trump
1. Pennsylvania and Georgia are must-wins: It's become clear that the Trump campaign views these two states as places it has to win. Just look at its ad spending. Since Super Tuesday, Trump and his allies have spent 77% of all their ad money in these two states — $50 million in Pennsylvania and $16 million in Georgia, according to data from AdImpact analyzed by NPR.
Why are they so important? Trump would get to exactly 270 with these two states and the other states currently leaning in his favor — without having to win North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan.
Transcript
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Vice President Kamala Harris could announce her running mate at any moment.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
The pair will then embark on a whirlwind campaign tour that kicks off tomorrow. The new duo could further shake up the electoral map as well.
MARTÍNEZ: The pair will then embark on a whirlwind campaign tour that kicks off tomorrow. The new duo could further shake up the electoral map as well.
FADEL: NPR's senior political editor and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro, has been looking at where the race stands, and he joins me now. Good morning.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, good morning.
FADEL: OK, so what do we know about who's at the top of the list for Harris' vice presidential nominee?
MONTANARO: Well, the three names that have gotten the most attention are Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Others have been vetted. But Harris is really - seems close to making the pick here. And this is really one of the most important decisions a presidential candidate makes. And it's been a really compressed timeline for Harris...
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: ...To do this. It's been such a sped-up process given that Biden dropped out only two weeks ago. And the Democrats' Convention is later this month, and picking a running mate usually takes months. We saw how long it took former President Trump to make the choice. And Harris is having to do it, as I said, in just a couple of weeks here.
FADEL: Yeah, and we learned last week that once Harris makes the decision, she and her running mate will campaign in a slew of states back to back. They'll go to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. How important are these places to the race at this point?
MONTANARO: I mean, they happen to be the seven states that both campaigns are focused on and spending all of their money in. And...
FADEL: Right.
MONTANARO: ...To put it bluntly, those seven states are the whole ball game. This tour is like the beginning of the finals in the Olympics. You know, everything to this point has been preliminary. This tour really signals the beginning of the sprint to the finish with this being the actual Democratic ticket, Harris and whomever she winds up picking.
FADEL: So you have a new analysis out this morning of the electoral map. When you look at these seven states, does either Trump or Harris have a clear advantage at this point? And how has the landscape changed since President Biden dropped out and Harris has gotten in?
MONTANARO: Well, the Vice President has really made up significant ground in the swing states, about two to four points on average when I was looking at the polls. And it's happened across the board. It's why the Trump campaign has now gone on the air in places like North Carolina, and are outspending Harris in five of those seven states that we talked about since she got in. You know, that's all in an effort to blunt her momentum. They've seen the numbers move just like we have. And looking at the so-called Blue Wall states - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania - Trump's lead there has completely evaporated. At this point, the Blue Wall is genuinely a toss-up. And that's why the Harris campaign says it is their big focus right now, because if Harris can win in each of those three, then she likely wins the presidency, and that really is her easiest path.
FADEL: And what about the rest of those seven states, the four Sunbelt states?
MONTANARO: Well, Harris has sliced into Trump's leads there basically in half to bring the margins in those places just within a couple of points. They do still lean ever so slightly in Trump's direction, though. Democrats are feeling increasingly optimistic there, they say. That's because these are very diverse states. Harris has been doing better than Biden with younger and non-white voters. Democrats also feel good about their organizing efforts in these states and have seen a boon in volunteers. Fifteen thousand new volunteers in Georgia, 7,000 in North Carolina. In Nevada, Democrats have a track record also of pulling out wins when they've been down in the polls previously. A place like Arizona, someone like Senator Mark Kelly could conceivably help, but given Democrats are so close to what they need to hold in the Blue Wall, and Arizona has fewer electoral votes than Pennsylvania - it's why someone like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro has gotten so much attention for VP. Harris needs just a small boost there to get over the top, and a governor with a 60% approval rating. Probably doesn't hurt.
FADEL: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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