Here comes the Sun (Belt): With Harris running, the presidential map has shifted back
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ATLANTA — President Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race may have reset the states considered up for grabs in November, as both major-party campaigns shift their attention to the Sun Belt once again.
The seven states decided by narrow margins in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are the primary focus of Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump with fewer than 100 days until Election Day — and with early voting set to begin in many places weeks before that.
Four years ago, Biden narrowly won all of those states except North Carolina by stitching together a diverse coalition of voters that also gave the campaign multiple pathways to win.
But following his disastrous debate performance a month ago, polling averages showed him losing to Trump nationwide, and trailing outside the margin of error in every battleground state except the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Now, with Harris replacing Biden as the likely Democratic nominee, early surveys of the new presidential race show a changing contest that is close, driven by a surge in Democratic enthusiasm and Harris winning back younger, nonwhite voters that had soured on Biden.
Those shifting coalitions point to improved chances for Democrats in the more diverse Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada — and put the original battleground map back into place.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll shows a statistical tie between Harris and Trump, both head to head and in a larger contest that includes minor party and independent candidates. Several state-level polls in swing states since Harris announced her candidacy show a tighter race as well.
The candidates themselves have both implicitly and explicitly acknowledged the altered political map. On the airwaves, both campaigns are launching multimillion-dollar ad buys in the key battleground states. Harris’ campaign is running a spot that highlights her background as a prosecutor and Trump’s video attacks Harris as weak on immigration issues.
Harris held a rally in Atlanta Tuesday night, the largest of the campaign so far, in front of thousands of supporters at Georgia State University’s Convocation Center.
"Georgia, it is so good to be back, and I am very clear: The path to the White House runs right through this state," Harris said to a filled 10,000-person arena. "And you all helped us win in 2020 — and we're gonna do it again in 2024!"
Trump and his vice presidential nominee, Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance, will hold a rally at the same location on Saturday.
Georgia in particular is seen as an opportunity for the Harris campaign to improve before Election Day.
Nearly a third of the electorate is Black, Atlanta’s suburbs are home to a sizable share of moderate voters who have voted for Republicans and Democrats in past elections, and the Harris campaign says it is making record staffing investments.
“In Georgia, we're running the largest in-state operation of any Democratic presidential campaign cycle ever,” Harris campaign communications director Michael Tyler said to reporters. “Since the vice president began her candidacy, we've seen tremendous energy on the ground.”
The Trump campaign is not ceding focus on the Sun Belt, though.
Vance is campaigning in Nevada and Arizona this week, with a planned appearance at the U.S. southern border on Thursday.
Arizona and Georgia are also two primary states where Republicans' "Trump Force 47" campaign strategy to use volunteers to lead targeted get-out-the-vote efforts is in full swing.
As both Trump and Harris continue to make their case to voters in these swing states over the next three months, there are still several key events that could continue to shape the contour of the race, like Harris naming her vice presidential pick, the Democratic National Convention next month in Chicago and any potential debates between Trump and Harris before voting begins.
Harris is set to announce her running mate within days, and the campaign says they will do a series of rallies, a tour that will begin on Tuesday and take them to Philadelphia, western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, N.C., Savannah, Ga., Phoenix and Las Vegas.
NPR's Deepa Shivaram contributed reporting.
Transcript
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
At least two things were notable about yesterday's campaign speech by Vice President Harris.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The first was the attitude. Harris has revived interest in the Democratic presidential campaign, and before a big crowd in Atlanta, she addressed her opponent, former President Trump, as Donald and challenged him to show up for a debate that he had previously scheduled with President Biden.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: I do hope you'll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage.
(CHEERING)
HARRIS: Because as the saying goes, if you've got something to say...
(CHEERING)
HARRIS: ...Say it to my face.
(CHEERING)
INSKEEP: Harris also smiled, as if mocking Republicans who have criticized her for laughing. Aside from the attitude was the location. She was in a state that previously seemed lost to Democrats.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Stephen Fowler was at that Atlanta rally. What's behind this apparent new focus on Sunbelt states such as Georgia?
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Well, simply put, it's Kamala Harris. Polls had Biden losing in all the battleground states he won in 2020. The debate made it worse, so his campaign was primarily focused on the Midwestern blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Then he dropped out, and all the groups that soured on his campaign - like younger voters, Black voters, independents, etc. - are moving back to Harris. Now, that diverse coalition, A, is what made Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia competitive in 2020, and with Harris as the nominee, it's likely to make them close again. Basically, thanks to a surge of enthusiasm over the ticket switch, Democrats now have multiple potential pathways to victory.
MARTÍNEZ: You were there. I mean, was the enthusiasm visible last night? We heard a little bit of that.
FOWLER: Absolutely. I mean, Democrats in Georgia and other places in the South I've reported from were telling me the election was about stopping Donald Trump, and less explicitly about supporting Joe Biden, but now, it's a vibe shift. This was the largest event of the campaign so far - about 10,000 people in Atlanta, all excited for Kamala Harris and beating Trump. It's like a switch was flipped for the base, and not just at these rallies. The campaign's reporting record fundraising, volunteer signups and interest in supporting Harris.
MARTÍNEZ: So what are Republicans going to say?
FOWLER: Well, it's important to remember that the Trump campaign is already firing on all cylinders. Trump named Republican U.S. Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate to cap off a triumphant Republican convention that cemented the party's unity. But now Harris has them pivoting both messaging and geography. Vance was in Nevada yesterday, Arizona today and tomorrow. He's got a visit to the border. This is fascinating to note - on Saturday, Trump and Vance will be here in Georgia, at the exact same arena as Harris's rally last night, likely with the same capacity, crowds and energy.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, while there's clearly a lot of enthusiasm for Harris in some spots, how much overall visibility does she have with voters, Stephen?
FOWLER: So there's this big effort to define Harris to voters, since she's less well-known, as a presidential candidate for just over a week, and even less known as the vice president. This is happening on both sides. There's multimillion-dollar ad spending campaigns in swing states. Trump's video goes on offense. He's attacking Harris as weak on immigration issues. The Harris campaign spot is more biographical, highlighting her background as a prosecutor. We should find out within the next few days about Harris's running mate selection. The campaign says they'll barnstorm several battleground states next week, because things change day to day.
MARTÍNEZ: They certainly do. NPR's Stephen Fowler, thank you very much.
FOWLER: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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