Here's what we know about Ukraine's military offensive in Russia

Transcript

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

Details are still few and far between on what exactly is happening in Russia's Kursk region. Both Russia and Ukraine are saying little, but we do know that Ukraine is on Day 4 of a surprise attack on Kursk - that's some 330 miles south of Moscow. And we know videos are emerging on social media of burned-out Russian vehicles, of Russians surrendering, of long lines of Russian civilians fleeing by car.

Dara Massicot is a former analyst on Russian military capabilities for the Pentagon, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dara Massicot, welcome back to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.

DARA MASSICOT: Thanks for having me back.

KELLY: As best as you can tell, what is the scale of this operation?

MASSICOT: It seems like there are around four to five elements of Ukrainian brigades, so I would estimate anywhere from slightly below 10,000 to maybe somewhere around 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers and others involved.

KELLY: And as best as you can tell, why? What is Ukraine's goal here?

MASSICOT: That is still something that we are all trying to figure out. There are a few different explanations for this. It could be a attempt to interdict some of the rail and road networks that come from northern Russia that bring troops and equipment down into - threaten the Kharkiv area. It's still very much early days of the operation, and we're trying to figure out if they intend to hold this territory or use it as a negotiationship or what's exactly going on.

KELLY: I've also seen people wondering whether this may be an attempt to divert Russian troops from other locations. Does that also sound plausible?

MASSICOT: That also does sound plausible. Russia is reacting to it, but it's not yet clear which units are moving and where - on the Russian side - to know if they're truly diverting from the front or not.

KELLY: Did this come as a total surprise to Russia?

MASSICOT: Absolutely. The response is very disconnected. The local inhabitants of these villages are pleading for help on their cellphones. The evacuation is them fleeing on foot or on car. There was drone feed of Russian POWs, and I'm trying to determine exactly who they were, but it does seem like a mixture of border guard troops and maybe even some conscripts in there as well, which is a huge political problem for the Kremlin.

KELLY: Hmm. I mean, this seems certainly to represent Ukraine's biggest incursion into Russian territory since this war began. Does this also mark - I was trying to think - the first time since World War II that the army of another country has invaded Russian territory?

MASSICOT: I think you are correct on that point. Yes. And Kursk does hold a lot of significance for Russia. And there was a major battle there in World War II, so it's interesting to watch the Kremlin leaning into the World War II connections here to try to drum up patriotism. So there's a lot of baggage in this area in particular.

KELLY: OK, so the U.S. has provided weapons for this war on condition that Ukraine not fire them deep into Russia. That position was reiterated this week. Here's John Kirby of the National Security Council speaking on Wednesday at the White House.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

JOHN KIRBY: Nothing has changed about our policy with respect to enabling or encouraging strikes or attack inside Russia.

KELLY: The reason the U.S. put these restrictions on Ukraine - restrictions on using American weapons to strike inside Russia - it's been about fear of escalation, of provoking Russia. Does this risk escalation?

MASSICOT: Well, it - you know, we are in uncharted waters here in terms of a ground incursion into Russia, and it is quite embarrassing this week for the Kremlin. And as they scramble to make a response - and I think we will know what the contours of that response are probably this weekend or early next week - there are a lot of unanswered questions that Putin should be asking of his deputies.

In terms of - is it more escalatory, or is it not? - in my view, it is not. It's a ground-force incursion on the ground that's a political decision on the Kremlin in terms of how they're going to respond. But no, I don't view this as a major escalation that causes the conflict to jump in a major way.

KELLY: Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - thank you.

MASSICOT: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.