It's uncertain how Trump rally shooting may affect November election in NC, researcher says

High Point University political scientist Martin Kifer called the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump that left one rallygoer dead “tragic and jarring,” and he expressed sympathy for the victims.

But the shooting’s impact on the election in North Carolina is hard to gauge, he says. Kifer runs HPU's Survey Research Center. He says part of the issue is that since this is a rematch of 2020, most voters already know the candidates well and have made up their minds about how they’ll vote.

Another factor is the timing, with the election almost four months away.

“There are things that are going to happen between now and November," he says. "It could be that the structure of how people are thinking about the race could change, but again, that's something we don't really know yet.”

Trump has, in their recent polls, had a consistent lead over President Joe Biden, but it’s close to the margin of error,  Kifer says. 

Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by less than two percent of the vote, but carrying the state wasn’t enough to win the national election.