More presidential voters are moving into the undecided camp, NPR Poll shows

Transcript

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

A snapshot now of the presidential race.

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Yes, a new NPR-PBS News-Marist poll finds that a significant number of voters now say they are undecided. Vice President Kamala Harris now has an opportunity to try to win them over. She brings different strengths than Biden and different vulnerabilities.

INSKEEP: NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro helped put this survey together and joins us. Domenico, good morning.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Steve.

INSKEEP: So, as I'm talking to voters here in Western Pennsylvania, I've been asking them about Biden's decision not to run. Widespread bipartisan agreement that it was the right move - a lot of sympathy also for Biden. That's what I hear anecdotally, but what do the numbers show?

MONTANARO: Yeah, we found the same thing in our survey. Nine in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents, all said it was the right thing for Biden to step aside. And there aren't too many things in this world that Republicans and Democrats agree on almost unanimously. But Biden getting out apparently was one of them. That's where the agreement ends, though when it comes to Biden, on whether he should finish out his term, for example. Two-thirds say that Biden should do so. That includes 9 in 10 Democrats and two-thirds of independents. A slim majority of Republicans, though, think that he should resign now. And we've heard Republicans like House Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump vice presidential running mate J.D. Vance, saying that he should resign, but that's probably not going to happen.

INSKEEP: I would imagine when you talk about disagreement, Republicans do not agree with Democrats about whether he's been a good president?

MONTANARO: No, no surprise there. What was a little more eyebrow-raising for Biden, I think, was the fact that almost 6 and 10 independents think that he'll be remembered as either a below average or one of the worst presidents in history. This is a group that he won in 2020. And this question might have been a canary in the coal mine for just how difficult it would have been for Biden to win them back.

INSKEEP: Do the initial signs suggest that Harris would be any different with independent voters?

MONTANARO: Well, like Biden, she's statistically tied with Trump, but under the hood, there are some interesting things to look at. When it comes to independents, a lot more of them are undecided. So that's one thing to look at. She does much better than Biden in holding onto Black voters and younger voters when they're given the chance to vote for other candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Professor Cornel West, who's running as an independent, or the Green Party's Jill Stein. In fact, RFK Jr. is only getting 7% in this survey? West and Stein are down to 1% each. Those are the lowest numbers we've seen for all of them since Marist has been asking about third party candidates this year. And that's directly because Harris doesn't shed young voters and non-white voters the way that Biden was when people were given another choice, even in our poll two weeks ago that compared Trump and Biden.

INSKEEP: Oh, that's really interesting. So voters were parking with third, fourth, fifth party candidates, maybe drifting away again, but where does Trump have an advantage?

MONTANARO: Well, Trump has what we call a high floor and a low ceiling. He's going to get his base of supporters - in 2016, he got 46% of the vote. 2020, It was 47% rounding up. In our poll, he's at - surprise, surprise - 46% against Harris.

INSKEEP: OK.

MONTANARO: Trump's strength in our survey is with white evangelical Christians and white men without college degrees. It's been that way for years. Harris does not do as well in the survey as Biden was doing with suburban voters, white voters overall, and independents. If it stays that way, it could usher Trump back into the White House. But like I said, 1 in 5 independents now say that they're undecided up, from just 4% two weeks ago. So Democrats feel at least like they might have a fresh start here.

INSKEEP: Yeah, this race felt so static and now feels a little different. Domenico, thanks.

MONTANARO: You're welcome.

INSKEEP: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.