Nevada Caucuses: Will Republicans Go All In For Trump?

Donald Trump is once again the favorite heading into this evening's GOP caucuses in Nevada, but low turnout and questions about each campaign's organization make it hard to predict exactly what will happen Tuesday night.

"Trump is going to win Nevada unless something very, very strange happens," Jon Ralston, the state's top political analyst, predicted on MSNBC Tuesday evening.

Polls have given an edge to the real estate mogul, whose name adorns a glistening gold hotel along the Las Vegas Strip. But both Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who have emerged as Trump's chief rivals following Saturday's South Carolina primary, have made late pushes in the state and are hoping for a strong second-place showing.

Whoever wins may not be immediately apparent. Voters are heading to caucus sites in the Silver State between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. ET, and results may not be known until midnight ET or later, possibly not until well into Wednesday.

The process is similar to what happened in Iowa earlier this month — voters will meet and cast secret ballots for their choices, not divide into groups of supporters for each candidate as Democrats do. Representatives for each candidate will have a chance to make a final case to voters before ballots are cast.

Many reporters at the caucuses were sending reports of confusion and chaos at caucus sites, including IDs not being checked, multiple ballots being given out and some site workers wearing shirts supporting Trump. The Nevada Republican Party tweeted that there were "no official reports of voting irregularities or violations" and that volunteers were permitted to wear candidate gear.

Four years ago, just 32,965 people showed up for the caucuses, which eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney won handily. In 2008, turnout was higher, with 44,315 voters coming out — far fewer than the approximately 400,000 registered voters in the state.

At stake are 30 delegates, who are awarded both proportionally based on the at-large statewide vote and by who wins the state's four congressional districts.

While Nevada as a whole is very diverse and a swing state in a general election, there very likely won't be many Hispanics in the GOP caucus. In 2012, 90 percent of the electorate was white, and Latinos made up only 5 percent of the vote.

A quarter of the GOP electorate four years ago was Mormon — something that early on was thought might benefit Rubio, whose family lived in the state as a child and had briefly joined the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

But now, that once-perceived advantage for the Florida senator could be moving toward Trump as well.

"What we've seen over the last few weeks is that there have been a lot of Mormon voters that have now come to Mr. Trump," Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald told NPR's Audie Cornish. "I can't explain it. It's clearly above my pay grade."

Cruz, meanwhile, has been hoping to pick up support from some of the state's libertarian-leaning Republicans who supported former Rep. Ron Paul in 2012 and 2008. His son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, withdrew from the presidential race after a disappointing Iowa finish.

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