New congressional maps may be more balanced but less competitive

Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has allowed North Carolina's court-imposed congressional maps to stand, it means some changes for Triad area voters. The new districts come closer to the true partisan nature of the state, but with the cost of some competitiveness.

North Carolina is a purple state and the outcomes of the congressional races are now more likely to reflect that split.

Wake Forest University Professor of Politics John Dinan says the court-approved districts should likely lead to an eight-six Republican advantage or even a seven-seven split between the GOP and Democrats.

But the new districts aren't likely to be particularly competitive. Dinan says the most vulnerable incumbent may be 6th District Representative Kathy Manning.

“We don't expect this to be competitive, but under the right conditions, we could imagine that race potentially being won by a Republican,” he says. “So that gives a sense of where the 6th District is rated by observers: a Democratic advantage, but not an overwhelming insurmountable Democratic advantage.”

Manning's district is similar to the one she won in 2020 with the help of urban voters in Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem. It now also includes all of Rockingham County and most of Caswell.

Seven Republicans and a Libertarian candidate have also filed to run for the seat.