Researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have been digging into data, specifically data on voter registration. And what they've found is that one group is growing exponentially – unaffiliated voters.
To unpack the findings, WFDD's Bethany Chafin spoke with researcher Chris Gentilviso at UNC School of Media and Journalism. His latest article is, “Tracking the Purple Wave, NC Voters Turn Away From Party Labels.”
Interview Highlights
On what a "purple wave" is:
Heading into 2018 Election Day one of the big questions on many folks minds is will we see a "blue wave"? And wave elections are in reference to voter turnout - a case where a political party, Republicans being red, Democrats being blue, make major gains in Congress. When we look at a map on election night Tuesday, we'll see winners and their states or districts shaded blue or red, but the "purple wave" is in reference to voter registration, because the choice that's making major gains among North Carolinians is unaffiliated. Since President Trump announced his run in June 2015 for the White House we've seen 70 percent of voter movement in registration toward that independent-minded column. So political polling is in transition [and] campaigns are knee-deep in data. When we look at the purple voter think of the unpredictable individual who's unaffiliated in a database, maybe lives in a district that's mostly registered Democrats and might vote for a Republican candidate. Think of the pivot counties, the places that captivated us where they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but Trump in 2016.
On voter movement:
When you think about voter movement, we're talking [about] what situations could happen that would cause us to see more unaffiliated voters over the last three years. So it's not necessarily new voters. It could be someone who moves from out of state into North Carolina. It could be a voter who had never registered. It could be a voter who had to reregister. It could also be someone who just decided to change their affiliation. So there's all sorts of scenarios, without getting too much into the science, that we think of when I see an increase in voters from 2015 to 2018 in any of the different party columns.
On voter trends in the past few years:
What we really saw is that unaffiliated voter rolls are growing every place. It's not limited to one county; it is occurring in all 100 counties. We're really seeing [it] in urban areas outside of the Triad, Wake and Mecklenburg, we're seeing it in the suburban areas - Johnston, Harnett, Chatham, Franklin closer to the Triangle, and the transition is robust. We're seeing increases of at least 30 percent in those counties which is well above the median level across the state. As for party changes, Democrats are seeing growth in cities. Democrats are also losing voters in 77 of the smaller counties in the state, but those are areas that are also losing population. That's why we decided to look at those two different data sets. And then for Republicans, their strongholds are really in some of the more suburban areas. They're adding voters in cities but at a smaller rate of about five to six percent.
On voter registration patterns specific to the Triad:
Yes, if we look at [the] median registration trend for unaffiliated voters it's about plus 24 percent. Davidson, Guilford and Forsyth Counties are all above that, in the range of 25 to 30. And when you put together the Triad with let's say the Triangle, the scope of this "purple wave" could really tip an election. ... It's always contingent on turnout, you know, early voting has been higher than in 2014, and overall turnout as of now is expected to be higher. For future wave elections though, blue or red, it's going to really be a key question for strategists - which voters within the "purple wave" do they need to target to help tip the balance?
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