NPR poll shows why the stakes are so high for Harris and Trump in the debate

Seven-in-10 Americans say they are going to watch the first presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump on Tuesday, and 3-in-10 say it will help decide their vote, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out.

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Trump continues to have the upper hand on many of the fundamentals in this election — he’s trusted more on the economy, immigration and how to handle the Middle East. And people who want a strong leader prefer him by a wide margin.

Because of those advantages, a generic Republican might be able to swing the election in his or her favor. Instead, the race remains a coin flip, with Trump being such a polarizing figure.

Harris is slightly better liked, is seen as caring “more about people like you,” is viewed as the candidate who most represents change, and she leads by a lot among those who say they want a leader who is “honest and trustworthy.” She also has a more significant advantage on abortion rights than Trump has on the other issues asked about.

Harris has her own vulnerabilities, particularly that more people see her as “too liberal” than see Trump as “too conservative,” including 50% of independents. That’s despite the fact that she has tried to tack to the middle on a host of issues, including immigration, foreign policy and fracking, trying to win over those moderate voters in the crucial swing states.

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She’ll likely be pushed on those issues in this debate because when she ran for president in 2019, she staked out more liberal positions in a Democratic primary. Harris would say she has traveled the country, learned more and evolved on some issues since then as vice president. But it will be up to her to make the case for herself in this debate.

It all underscores the importance of the debate, which carries risks for both candidates in front of what is likely to be one of, if not the, largest television audience of the presidential campaign so far.

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The survey was conducted Sept. 3 though 5. Marist interviewed 1,529 U.S. adults via cellphone, landline and online research panels in English and in Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, meaning results could be roughly 3 points higher or lower.

More than 8-in-10 say they’re definitely voting

An overwhelming majority of respondents said they are definitely voting in this election – 82%, in fact. Harris supporters are marginally more likely to say so — 85% — with independents registering at just 77%.

Harris leads with those who say they’re definitely voting by 3 points, but both she and Trump have some turnout warning signs.

Younger voters are the least likely to vote – just 65% of those under 35 said they are definitely voting. Black and Latino voters lag behind as well in their enthusiasm for voting (73% and 77%, respectively). But Harris benefits from a 50-point margin with Black voters over Trump, and she’s leading by 20 points with white college-educated voters.

That’s a group President Biden won by only 3 points in 2020, according to exit polls. And they are among the most likely to vote – 94% said they are definitely voting. Harris does exceptionally well with white college-educated women, but she’s also doing well with white college-educated men.

Trump won the group by 3 points in 2020, but Harris leads by 10 with those men in this survey.

White voters without degrees are one of Trump’s strongest core groups, but they are about 10 points less likely to say they’ll definitely vote than white voters with degrees.

A wide gender gap and swing Latino voters

The race between the two candidates remains what it’s been — close. Forty-nine percent say they prefer Harris, and 48% say they are leaning toward Trump.

Harris overall is buoyed by women. She leads with women by 15 points, while Trump leads with men by 12.

Women traditionally make up a slightly larger percentage of the electorate. Biden lost men in 2020, but only by 8 points, so Harris likely needs to do marginally better with men.

Latino voters are emerging as a potential X factor. They are crucial in the southwest swing states of Arizona and Nevada. Trump leads in the survey with the group, 51%-47%, but Harris led by 16 points with the group last month. It’s important to note that subgroups in national polling have very high margins of error. For Latinos in this survey, it’s +/- 8.2 percentage points, meaning results could be 8 points higher or lower, a range of 16 points.

Harris is slightly better liked

After a month that has seen more than $100 million in advertising trying to define Harris, she is holding up fairly well. The electorate is split: 47% have a positive view of her, 46% have a negative one.

For Trump, on the other hand, 45% have a favorable impression while 50% have an unfavorable one.

Between the vice-presidential running mates, Democrat Tim Walz is +4 in his favorability rating (40% to 36%), while Republican JD Vance continues to be underwater by 10 points (34% to 44%).