Pollster says despite shifting presidential race landscape, North Carolina isn't seeing same movement

This week, both major party presidential candidates are scheduled to visit the Tar Heel State. On Wednesday Former President Donald Trump will campaign in Asheville, and on Friday Vice President Kamala Harris returns to stump in Raleigh.  

Since President Biden abandoned his bid for re-election and Vice President Harris became her party’s standard bearer, national polls have shifted in favor of the Democrats. That trend has begun to extend into battleground states as well with the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing Harris now leading Trump within the margin of error in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

High Point University Survey Research Center Director Martin Kifer says he does not expect to see major shifts in North Carolina in the presidential race.

"A lot of people have made up their mind who they’ll vote for if they vote," says Kifer. "And so, things may have shifted a little bit back toward Vice President Harris — we’ve got one recent poll that has a tie — but most of the others even those that were taken at about the same time, they’re showing a narrow gap for Donald Trump."

Kifer says North Carolina is a closely divided state with a relatively rich prize of 16 electoral votes.

"We are seen as a potential reach state for Democrats," he says. "That is that if they’re winning a lot of other places then they might be able to pick up North Carolina. For Republicans at the presidential level, it tends to be one of those states they must win."

He anticipates many more visits from the two presidential contenders ahead of November 5. In the meantime, he adds he’ll be paying close attention to the level of enthusiasm for both parties leading into the general election as well as the potential bump in polling for Harris following next week’s Democratic National Convention.