Rare weather events like tornadoes in New York may be more common with climate change

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AILSA CHANG, HOST:

Remnants from Debby are bringing heavy rain and flooding to many parts of the East Coast today, and in some places tornado warnings. It's the latest in what has been a deadly and destructive year for tornadoes, including in states that aren't used to dealing with them. In New York state, at least 26 tornadoes have touched down this year so far, the most ever recorded. That has left state officials and residents wondering if the region should expect more storms like this in the future and what role human-caused climate change might be playing. As WSKG's Rebecca Redelmeier reports, the science is complicated.

REBECCA REDELMEIER, BYLINE: One of the most destructive tornadoes to hit the state this summer touched down in Rome, a city of just over 30,000 people in upstate New York. Stephen Lavine, who goes by Butch, was with his great-grandkids in the yard when the storm rolled in. His daughter rushed the kids into her house across the street.

STEPHEN LAVINE: Seen the hurricane - or tornado coming, and she got them into the cellar before that tree fell on them.

REDELMEIER: A big tree crashed into the side of his daughter's house. Lavine himself hid at home.

LAVINE: I walked in my bathroom. My whole house was shaking. I didn't know what. And it was the loudest noise I ever heard.

REDELMEIER: While the whole family is safe, their homes were destroyed. Lavine has lived in Rome nearly all his life. He says he never expected to see a tornado here.

LAVINE: Never seen that. I was talking to people - 67 years, never seen it.

REDELMEIER: New York usually gets a few tornadoes each year. But this year, it's already had more than ever recorded before. Other states in the Northeast have also seen unusual tornado patterns in recent years. Mark Wysocki is a former New York state climatologist. He says the Northeast should prepare for the possibility of more storms like this going forward.

MARK WYSOCKI: The Northeast has been sheltered from this. Everybody in the Northeast says, oh, that's a Midwest problem.

REDELMEIER: But he says tornado patterns are shifting.

WYSOCKI: However, we're seeing a change in when they occur and where they occur.

REDELMEIER: The science around tornadoes is complicated. Scientists have found more tornadoes are forming slightly further east than the historic average, in the central and southern Great Plains. And as winters get shorter, more tornadoes are forming earlier in the year. Wysocki says he thinks climate change is driving the shift, and there's some indicators of that. But climate scientists say there still isn't enough data to say for sure. Harold Brooks is a senior scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma. He says New York might just be having a weird year.

HAROLD BROOKS: Unless you start having a lot more happening, a lot more often, I don't think you've got anything that's really happened up there that's other than just a curiosity.

REDELMEIER: Brooks says warming global temperatures will certainly affect the conditions that make tornadoes. It's just not clear yet how that will change where or how often tornadoes form. There are two big ingredients that make tornadoes likely, a combination of warm, moist air and something called wind shear, which is basically what makes a storm rotate. Brooks says climate change is creating more hot, humid days, but it's reducing wind shear.

BROOKS: So we've got one big ingredient that on average will become more favorable and one big ingredient that will become less favorable on average.

REDELMEIER: Jackie Bray is New York's commissioner of Homeland Security and Emergency Services. She says it's clear the state needs to prepare for more extreme weather.

JACKIE BRAY: This is another thing that we're just going to have to get good at as New Yorkers.

REDELMEIER: Bray says the state is spending more to help communities prepare for heavier rainstorms, more intense heat waves, and yes, tornadoes. Other Northeast states like New Jersey, Connecticut and Vermont are also investing in keeping roads and neighborhoods safe from intense storms. Stephen Lavine in Rome says the July tornado caused so much damage, he's not sure how his family will recover.

LAVINE: But we didn't want to leave, but it's been a terrible nightmare.

REDELMEIER: The city is facing at least tens of millions of dollars of damages.

For NPR News, I'm Rebecca Redelmeier in Rome, N.Y.

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