Republicans hope McCarthy's bill gives him leverage in debt ceiling standoff
With the clock ticking on the debt ceiling debate, House Republicans have narrowly passed a bill that they hope will bring President Biden to the negotiating table.
The bill would raise the debt ceiling while cutting federal spending — things Democrats are vehemently opposed to linking — and threatens to unravel parts of Biden's domestic agenda.
It's not likely to advance further, since Senate Democrats have labeled key provisions "nonstarters" and the White House says Biden would veto it.
But it could increase pressure on Biden to start talking about compromises, since neither party wants to default on the national debt. Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy haven't had an extended discussion about it since February. Biden and the White House have insisted that raising the debt limit be kept separate from talks about spending cuts.
So far, the White House is holding firm.
McCarthy has a fair amount of leverage at this point, says Julian Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University.
"He's now put forth a pretty big package of spending cuts and that becomes the focus of the debate," Zelizer explains. "They're specific spending cuts, and so now Biden has this in front of him and it's more than an amorphous discussion.
Democrats argue that raising the debt ceiling — in order to avoid defaulting, which could sink the U.S. economy and roil global financial markets — shouldn't be subject to partisan politics, and that they shouldn't have to make concessions to Republicans just to finance spending they've already committed.
Zelizer agrees with that argument, but says as long as Republicans are willing to follow through, there's a potential for a default unless Biden takes "extraordinary measures," like using the 14th amendment to pay the government's bills.
"If he's not willing to do that, he doesn't have as much leverage, I think, as some Democrats hope," he adds. " And he might have to concede to some of these spending cuts to get the bill through."
Zelizer spoke with Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep about the recent precedents and power dynamics at play.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Interview highlights
On the idea that House Republicans are driving McCarthy
That's been clear from day one, that the caucus controls him rather than him leading the caucus. They have made it crystal clear that this debt ceiling fight is serious and that they're willing to go through with the ultimate threat of not raising the debt ceiling. And so McCarthy doesn't have much wiggle room not to listen to them at this point.
On what Biden can learn from the 2011 debt ceiling standoff
[President Barack] Obama made concessions on spending cuts in the end, and so I think we might see a replay of that. I don't know how far Biden is willing to go. This caucus is even more radicalized than the caucus in 2011, so I think the situation is even more fraught than it was in 2011.
On whether Biden could keep refusing to negotiate
He could get involved in one of these faceoffs and hope that the Republicans back down, or more importantly, hope that somehow Senator [Mitch] McConnell comes to the rescue, that somehow within the Republican party that the Senate starts to apply pressure on the House somehow, through carrots and sticks, to back down. But at this point there's no sign that McConnell is going to do that, so if Biden wants to take that step he can, but the risks are very high.
On deeper political significance of the fight
[Biden] can also think of ways around this. But the problem is this shouldn't be something that becomes at the center of these partisan battles from the Republican party, and that's really what the crisis is at this point.
The audio interview was edited by Olivia Hampton.
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Transcript
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Now let's ask who has more leverage in a fight over raising the federal debt limit. It's a power struggle between House Republicans on one side and the Democratic-controlled Senate and President Biden on the other. Democrats want the U.S. to pay its existing bills and avoid default, which requires extending federal borrowing authority. Republicans say they would like that, too, but they refuse to do it unless Democrats give in to their agenda. Let's talk this over with Julian Zelizer, who is a Princeton University political history professor.
Good morning.
JULIAN ZELIZER: Good morning. Nice to be with you.
INSKEEP: OK. So McCarthy essentially made an opening bid by getting 218 votes, getting a bill through the House so that Republicans were unified - or nearly all of them were unified - on a specific position. How much leverage does he have now?
ZELIZER: Well, he has leverage. He's now put forth a pretty big package of spending cuts, and that becomes the focus of the debate. They're specific spending cuts. And so now Biden has this in front of him, and it's more than an amorphous discussion. And look, the House Republicans are driving McCarthy. I don't think he's going to budge much. So he's going to move forward aggressively against the administration.
INSKEEP: I'm interested in what you just - the way you just phrased that. House Republicans are driving McCarthy. It sounds like you think McCarthy would be flexible if his political situation would allow that, but his political situation does not, as he sees it.
ZELIZER: I think that's right. That's been clear from day one, that the caucus controls him, rather than him leading the caucus. And they have made it crystal clear that this debt ceiling fight is serious and that they're willing to go through with the ultimate threat of not raising the debt ceiling. And so McCarthy doesn't have much wiggle room not to listen to them at this point.
INSKEEP: But let's look at this from the other side, though. Democrats in the Senate and President Biden have argued this is essentially a hostage situation, that they, in a negotiation of any kind, should not be giving things to Republicans for doing their job, doing the thing that they need to do anyway, figuring out a way to finance passed committed spending. How much leverage do they have?
ZELIZER: Well, I think their arguments are correct. This shouldn't be something that is subject to partisan politics. It shouldn't be used as leverage for spending cuts. The problem is if Republicans are willing to go through with this, that means there's a potential for a default unless the president takes extraordinary measures, like using the 14th Amendment to pay for the government's bills. If he's not willing to do that, he doesn't have as much leverage, I think, as some Democrats hope. And he might have to concede to some of these spending cuts to get the bill through.
INSKEEP: President Obama faced this problem a couple of times. The first time he tried to negotiate with the then-House speaker, John Boehner. And I guess it worked out in the end. But it was a near calamity. It was a total disaster. And it turned out that Boehner himself didn't have full control of his caucus. Is there any reason for Democrats to ever do that again?
ZELIZER: And let's remember, President Obama made concessions on spending cuts in the end. And so I think we might see a replay of that. I don't know how far Biden is willing to go. This caucus is even more radicalized than the caucus in 2011. So I think the situation is even more fraught than it was in 2011.
INSKEEP: Although, Obama tried a different choice a year or two later, essentially said, I'm not negotiating over this at all. If you want to drive the country off the cliff, that's your business because it's your job to prevent that. Do your job. Could Biden just keep on with that approach, which is how he's done it so far?
ZELIZER: He could. He could get involved in one of these faceoffs and hope that the Republicans back down and, more importantly, hope that somehow Senator McConnell comes to the rescue, that somehow within the Republican Party, that the Senate starts to apply pressure on the House, somehow, through carrots and sticks to back down. But at this point, there's no sign that McConnell is going to do that. So if Biden wants to take that step, he can. But the risks are very high. Again, he can also think of ways around this. But the problem is this shouldn't be something that becomes at the center of these partisan battles from the Republican Party. And that's really what the crisis is at this point.
INSKEEP: Julian Zelizer of Princeton, thanks so much.
ZELIZER: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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