Trump verdict would likely move only a small number of votes, poll finds
Most people say the outcome of former President Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in New York will not have an impact on their vote in the 2024 presidential election, but it could have an effect on some key groups, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. The full survey results will be released Thursday morning.
Overall, two-thirds (67%) said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote; three-quarters (76%) said the same of a not guilty verdict.
Roughly 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. That was true of a quarter of nonwhites and 1 in 5 voters who make less than $50,000 a year and those under 45.
Surveys have shown Trump making inroads with younger voters and non-white voters, but that support has often appeared soft, meaning they haven’t fully made up their minds.
A not-guilty verdict would have somewhat of an inverse effect of a guilty verdict. Almost 1 in 5 voters under 45, non-white voters, those who make less than $50,000 a year and others said an acquittal would make them more likely to vote for Trump.
Mike Burr, a Democrat from Georgia, told NPR the trial won’t affect his vote because he’s voting against Trump.
“The trial kind of affirms that I don't think anybody should be voting for Donald Trump,” Burr said. “I don't think Donald Trump is good for the country.”
John Duvall, a Republican from Tennessee, had the opposite view.
“I think it’s a big farce,” Duvall said. “It’s an attack on Donald Trump. … I’ll vote for him more because of what they’re doing, because it’s illegal. If they send him to jail, I’ll still vote for him, because the whole thing is a political attack on him.”
Small, but perhaps important, percentages of core Trump voter groups also said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty — those who live in small towns (17%), whites without college degrees (14%), those who live in rural areas (11%) and Republicans (10%).
Just 11% of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
In a race that’s expected to be close, any decline, even at the margins, could have an effect, but the numbers demonstrate just how little the trial is likely to swing many voters at all, no matter the verdict.
Views of both Trump and Biden are simply very locked-in.
Transcript
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
We're in a presidential election year and waiting to find if one of the major party candidates is guilty of a crime.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
A jury is deliberating the trial of former President Donald Trump. They're deciding if he falsified business records, which is a felony in New York if you do it in pursuit of some other crime. However they decide, a much larger jury of his peers gets a chance to make its own choice soon afterwards - so what are voters thinking?
INSKEEP: An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll offers some insight, and NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro joins us once again. Domenico, good morning.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Steve.
INSKEEP: Thanks for getting up early. OK, so we've talked about this. The election is not later this fall. It's now - the first debate in less than a month, early voting startlingly soon, and here's this trial. How are voters thinking about it?
MONTANARO: Well, I mean, the overwhelming sentiment among respondents was that a guilty verdict would not make any difference. Two-thirds said that it would make no difference. Another 15%, mostly Republicans, said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to vote for him in the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. Our producer, Janet Woojeong Lee, reached a couple of respondents from the survey, and they had very different takes on the trial. First, here's Mike Burr, a Democrat from Georgia.
MIKE BURR: The trial kind of affirms that I don't think anybody should really be voting for Donald Trump. I don't think Donald Trump is good for the country.
MONTANARO: But then there's John Duvall, a Republican from Tennessee.
JOHN DUVALL: I think it's a big farce. There's an attack on Donald Trump. I'll vote for him more because of what they're doing because it's illegal.
MONTANARO: I mean, of course, the trial is not illegal, but it's not surprising to hear this kind of view on the right because it's what conservative media is saying day in and day out. But I think it's important context because this is what we live in in this country. People have very different views of our politics and very different perceptions, especially of Donald Trump. And those views are, for the most part, very locked in - but I will say, former President found guilty is not a headline Trump wants.
INSKEEP: Oh, sure - because it's a very close election. It's about a few voters on the margins. So would anybody's vote be affected by the verdict?
MONTANARO: Well, one group that's important here is younger voters. I mean, Biden's been struggling with them in the polls. Certainly, he's not doing as well with them currently as he did in 2020. And for those under 45, about 1 in 5 of them say a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. But if Trump is found not guilty, the same number say that they'd be more likely to vote for him. So they might be somewhat persuadable, but, one, I have to say some of those are partisans...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...And, two, it's also important to note that saying a verdict makes you less likely to do something doesn't necessarily mean that's what you're actually going to do.
INSKEEP: Yeah, fair point. Now, you said something else there - you said Biden is struggling with younger voters. How bad is it as we head into summer?
MONTANARO: Yeah, Biden has just a 24% approval rating with voters 18-29.
INSKEEP: Ow.
MONTANARO: Sixty-two percent say that they have an unfavorable opinion of him. Those are terrible numbers for a Democrat in particular. So what's going on here? I mean, our pollsters tell me that affordability and housing are big pieces of this. And the data show that on everything from the economy to immigration to the war between Israel and Hamas, younger voters have a worse opinion of Biden than voters overall, and they're less likely to think that he has the mental fitness to do the job. That's all had a huge effect on how Biden stacks up against Trump, and when third parties are introduced, it just gets worse.
INSKEEP: Domenico, thanks so much. Really appreciate it.
MONTANARO: You got it.
INSKEEP: That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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