With the veepstakes on, Tim Scott thinks he can deliver the Black votes Trump wants
Sen. Tim Scott says Black voters, especially Black men, might be the key to a Trump victory in 2024.
Black voters have overwhelmingly supported Democratic presidential candidates over the years, but the South Carolina senator points to recent polling that shows black support for Biden is falling.
“There’s a lot of reasons why the shift is now becoming so blatantly obvious that it is now undeniable that there is something amiss. It’s real,” Scott said in a meeting Wednesday with a group of reporters. “It's not just racial, but it's going to manifest itself in a racial shift that we haven't seen in probably three decades of politics.”
Scott, who is a leading candidate to be former President Donald Trump’s running mate, thinks he can help Trump continue to chip away at that lead - and plans to court those voters while campaigning over the next several months in battleground states.
The effort could also boost Scott’s chances of being picked by Trump, who has made a point of appealing to Black and Latino voters. Trump is expected to select his choice for vice president by the Republican National Convention, which will be held next month in Milwaukee.
“Obviously, it’s a must win constituency for Biden,” explained Alex Conant, who helped lead Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign in 2016. “To the extent that [Sen. Scott] can cleave votes, it’s a really big deal. Politically, it makes [Scott] a very interesting VP pick.”
The Great Opportunity PAC, which supports Scott’s agenda, is launching a $14.3 million campaign to help court black voters, according to a memo from the PAC obtained by NPR.
Most of the money will go toward voter outreach, but millions will also be spent on advertising and digital marketing as well as research and analytics to back up the effort.
The message is simple: Democrats have long taken the Black vote for granted. And Scott insists Black voters were better off during the Trump administration, particularly from an economic standpoint, than they have been under Biden.
In a recent poll by GenForward, conducted by the University of Chicago, just 33% of young Black people said they would support Biden if the election were held today - and 23% chose Trump. While the poll showed significant undecided and third party sentiment, Biden won Black voters under 45 by more than 80% in 2020.
Democrats are aware of the numbers – as well as the need to strengthen the coalition that brought them victory in 2024.
It’s just one of the reasons Biden has been targeting the group with visits and events in Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia.
In Michigan, Biden spoke at the NAACP's annual Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner. He told the massive crowd that he needs them.
“Let’s be clear,” Biden said. “Because of your vote, it’s the only reason I’m standing here as President of the United States of America, period. Again, that’s not a joke. That’s a fact. You’re the reason Kamala Harris is a historic vice president. You’re the reason Donald Trump is the defeated former president. And you’re the reason Donald Trump is going to be a loser again.”
The Biden campaign has also launched ad campaigns attacking Trump on his record with Black and brown Americans, highlighting some of the most racially charged remarks he’s made, including about the white nationalist rally in Charlottesville and dehumanizing language against Latino migrants.
“The threat that Trump poses is greater in a second term than the first,” Biden told the crowd in Detroit.
Scott doesn’t expect Black voters to flee the Democratic party in droves, but that’s not necessary. He says Biden can’t afford to lose much of the Black vote – especially in states like Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.
“If the Black voters do two things, some stay home and some come to the right there is no way to fill that hole,” Scott predicted. “So the coalition that is necessary for the Democrats to have success, period, it's not just Black and Hispanic. It's specifically Black in the battleground states where they have to be successful.”
Cornell Belcher, who served as a pollster for former President Barack Obama, echoed that uphill battle for Biden.
He doesn’t think Black voters are going to jump to Trump, but he does worry some might not show up.
“I'm more concerned about African American voters sitting at home or breaking third party. Because that becomes 2016 again, right? How does Trump win? He doesn't win by addition. He wins by subtraction,” Belcher explained.
He argues that polls and pundits issued the same tired warnings before the 2022 midterm elections and back in 2012 - about Obama struggling with Black voters.
But he also emphasizes that no candidate is where they want to be five months out from the election.
“That's literally why we run a campaign like this at this point,” he said.
Transcript
AILSA CHANG, HOST:
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott says Black voters, especially Black men, can win the election for former President Trump. Black voters overwhelmingly have supported Democrats for President, but Scott, who's a leading candidate to be Trump's running mate, says he can help Trump chip away at that lead. Scott's political action committee is spending about $15 million to do just that. NPR's Franco Ordoñez is covering the Trump campaign. He's with us now to talk about the efforts and the challenges. Hi, Franco.
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Hey, Ailsa.
CHANG: OK, so I understand that you were part of this small group of reporters who met with Senator Scott. Can you just tell us about his plans? Like, what's his pitch here?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, yeah. I mean, you kind of laid it out pretty well. I mean, Scott is the only Black Republican in the Senate, and he's launching a campaign to turn out Black voters, especially men, for Trump. Now, the Black vote was critical for Biden four years ago, and Scott wants to, you know, seize on the opportunity presented in polls that show Black support for Biden is falling.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
TIM SCOTT: There's a lot of reasons why the shift is becoming just so blatantly obvious that it's now undeniable that there is something amiss, and it's real.
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, his PAC will lead much of the effort, which includes television ads, direct mail - all the things that you can expect in a full-fledged campaign. Scott is going to be traveling, hosting events in key states like Michigan and Georgia, where they feel they can make a real difference. And the pitch, as you say, is that Democrats have taken the vote for granted, and they argue that Black voters were better off under Trump, especially from an economic standpoint.
CHANG: But Black voters were a key part of Biden winning in 2020, and they've long supported Democrats. So is there a real chance that this bloc of voters will suddenly switch parties for Trump?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, not as a bloc. I mean, that's not going to happen, but they don't need that to happen. They just need a few percentage points. I mean, Scott was pretty blunt talking about the vulnerabilities for Biden.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
SCOTT: If Black voters do two things - some stay home and some come to the right - there is no way to fill the hole. So the coalition that is necessary for the Democrats to have success period - it's not just Black and Hispanic. It's specifically Black.
ORDOÑEZ: In a recent poll by GenForward, which was conducted by the University of Chicago, just 33% of young Black people said they would support Biden if the election were held today. Twenty-three percent chose Trump. Now, for context, four years ago, Biden won Black voters under 45 by more than 80%.
CHANG: Right. And that poll you just cited - I mean, it's not the only poll showing challenges for Biden among Black voters. Has this push from Senator Scott caught the attention of the Biden campaign?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, this has definitely caught the Biden campaign's attention. I mean, that's why they've been targeting this group with visits and events in places like Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia. I was talking with Cornell Belcher, who served as a pollster for former President Barack Obama. And Belcher says Biden's work on student loans and reproductive rights are real wins for the Black community. And he says those voters are not going to jump to Trump. But he also says that he has some concerns that they may not show up.
CORNELL BELCHER: I'm more concerned about African American voters sitting at home or breaking third party because that becomes 2016 again, right? How does Trump win? He doesn't win by addition. He wins by subtraction.
ORDOÑEZ: Now, he says Biden could be doing more, but no campaign is perfect five months out. And the work they're doing now is really already paying dividends.
CHANG: And real quick, could this effort by Senator Scott help him earn the VP spot on the Republican ticket, you think?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, to the extent that Scott can grab some of these voters, it's a big deal. And strategists I talk to say it makes him a very interesting VP pick.
CHANG: That is NPR's Franco Ordoñez. Thank you so much, Franco.
ORDOÑEZ: Thank you, Ailsa.
(SOUNDBITE OF KEHLANI SONG, "GET ME STARTED") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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