We're in for a brutal hurricane season, according to predictions

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a record number of hurricanes this season, which began on June 1 and runs through Nov. They're forecasting anywhere from 17 to 25 storms in the Atlantic basin, with at least eight hurricanes, and at least four major hurricanes. The average number of storms in a season is 14.

Scientists think this storm activity could be due to strong winds, warmer ocean temperatures and even a volcanic mystery unfolding in the Atlantic.

NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt says temperatures in the Atlantic ocean have been in "record-breaking territory" for about a year. Extra heat fuels hurricanes and can lead to heavier rains and flooding. While climate scientists expected the oceans to heat up, temperatures have been even hotter than expected in the last year.

"The warming that we've seen in the North Atlantic over the last year has made people lift their eyebrows a little bit and go 'Huh! What's going on there?'" says Schmidt.

While human-caused climate change is largely to blame for overall warming in the oceans, what's spurring these eye-popping recent temperatures is still a mystery. The candidate list spans a wide range — everything from dust and pollution in the air to the solar cycle or even incorrect data. Another suspect: an underwater volcanic eruption near Tonga in 2022.

Regardless of the cause, forecasters urge everyone in places that get hurricanes to prepare as early as possible. Make an evacuation plan and find ways to protect homes or ways to stay safe while sheltering in place.

Questions about hurricanes or other weather disasters? Email us at shortwave@npr.org — we'd love to consider it for a future episode!

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This episode was produced by Rachel Carlson. It was edited by Rebecca Ramirez. Rebecca Hersher checked the facts. The audio engineer was Kwesi Lee.