What the implications of Venezuela's presidential election means for the U.S.

Transcript

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The opposition leader in Venezuela, Edmundo Gonzalez - he ran against longtime President Nicolas Maduro - says his campaign now has proof that he won Sunday's presidential election. Thousands of protesters took to the streets across the country in protest of Maduro's continued rule, and global leaders are expressing skepticism and concern after the country's electoral authority declared Maduro the president. Again, here's U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

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ANTONY BLINKEN: It's critical that every vote be counted fairly and transparently, that election officials immediately share information with the opposition and independent observers without delay. And that the electoral authorities publish the detailed tabulation of votes. The international community is watching this very closely and will respond accordingly.

FADEL: Some countries, including the U.S., have held off recognizing the results. For a sense of the global implications of this election and claims of fraud in Venezuela, including its impact on the U.S., we're joined now by Francisco Rodriguez. He's a Venezuelan economist and professor at the University of Denver. Good morning. Thanks for being on the program.

FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ: Good morning.

FADEL: So let's start with the legitimacy of the election. There wasn't violence. Voters voted on electronic voting machines. Is it clear there was fraud here?

RODRIGUEZ: Well, it's apparent that there was fraud. Right now, what we have are essentially two sets of results. There are results that have been announced by the government...

FADEL: Yeah.

RODRIGUEZ: ...And by the electoral council, which is controlled by the government. Those put Maduro ahead. And we have the opposition now releasing its own results that say that it won by a massive margin, by a two-to-one margin. The opposition has started uploading the detailed results by voting center and allowing people to verify the results in their voting center. The government has not published disaggregated results. The government has simply published an aggregate number. The electoral council website is down. So there's definitely very serious indication that there's something going on here with the results, and that the results may have been altered, but this really merits an independent investigation, and it merits a very close look at these results with the disaggregated poll results that the electoral authorities have yet to publish.

FADEL: Now, Venezuela has one of the world's largest oil reserves in the world. And under Maduro's rule, the economy has suffered, oil prices dropped, hyperinflation. Millions of Venezuelans have left. But I want to ask you why this election matters so much to the world, and particularly to the U.S. And why does it matter?

RODRIGUEZ: Well, Venezuela has been isolated from the world economy since the U.S. imposed sanctions in 2019. So let's remember that Maduro's previous reelection was also seen as illegitimate, and Venezuela's oil production has plummeted and even though the country has the world's largest oil resource by some accounts, it's producing less than 1 million barrels a day. So it's definitely important for Venezuela to have a transition to a democratic system with an internationally recognized government, not just for and primarily, so that Venezuelans can express themselves and have a government of their own choosing, but also to reinsert Venezuela into the world economy, to be able to recover the economy from the huge collapse Venezuela's GDP per capital has suffered. It's declined by more than 71%. That's the equivalent of three Great Depressions. And it's the largest economic contraction ever seen outside of wartime. And also because the country has seen a mass exodus of more than a quarter of its population, and that has meant millions of Venezuelans living in Colombia and Peru and trying to come into the U.S. It's fueling the U.S. migrant crisis. So there's definitely spillover effects into the region, into the world, into the U.S.

FADEL: You mentioned the number of people coming into the U.S. The U.S. has taken extreme interest in Maduro's rule. It's imposed sanctions in the past. Maduro insists he won this election. What will the U.S. do now?

RODRIGUEZ: Well, the U.S. doesn't have actually that many libers because it's already significantly sanctioned Venezuela. Now, the U.S. did start lifting and easing some of those sanctions two years ago in order to get Venezuela reinserted into global markets. And also, as a result of negotiations with the Venezuelan government, that were supposed to lead to free and fair elections. Now, the U.S. can roll back some of these sanctions - I mean, reimpose some of the sanctions, roll back some of the sanctions relief, but that's something that has to be done very carefully because the economic sanctions imposed in Venezuela have also contributed to the country's economic crisis. So here, if the US reimposes sanctions and tries to block off Venezuela and oil exports again, it could simply contribute to a deepening of the country's crisis and to an increase in migrant influxes.

FADEL: That's Francisco Rodriguez. He's a Venezuelan economist and professor at the University of Denver. Thank you so much for your time.

RODRIGUEZ: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.