What NPR's poll says about the state of Biden's campaign

Transcript

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

Last night, President Biden doubled down on his decision to stay in the presidential race.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: I think I'm the most qualified person to run for president. I beat him once, and I will beat him again.

KELLY: It was a solid performance, but Biden made some notable gaffs, like mixing up his vice president's name with Donald Trump. The event was probably more closely watched for Biden's performance than for substance. It has been that way since his terrible debate, which led to calls for him to pull out of the race. But with Trump as the alternative, a lot of voters seem to be staying with him, at least for now. Joining us to discuss is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hey, Domenico.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Mary Louise.

KELLY: Oh, the news conference last night - did it do anything to stem the democratic criticism of Biden's debate?

MONTANARO: I mean, it may have bought him a little bit of time. I mean, it was not disastrous debate - disastrous like the debate was. I mean, there was no flood of calls for him to get out afterward, but there was still a bit of a trickle. You know, we heard Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries express concerns to the White House about what his members are hearing in their districts. He's someone who could have significant influence with Biden on whether he stays in or not.

Our Capitol Hill team is also hearing that there are more meetings today and into the weekend between the president and some key groups - moderate Democrats worried that Biden could weigh down swing district members, the Asian Pacific Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. The White House is taking some solace in polling, I will say, today, showing Biden within the margin of error or even leading Trump narrowly, including in ours today.

KELLY: Yeah, let's talk more about ours today. What else were the headlines from this poll?

MONTANARO: Well, I mean, the poll that we conducted with PBS NewsHour and Marist has Biden ahead of Trump 50 to 48 but Trump ahead 43-42 when third parties are introduced. And all of that is firmly within the margin of error, but it shows that the race really hasn't changed all that dramatically since the debate, at least nationally. We're just in a really polarized environment. Even the polls that have shown Biden down since the debate are mostly within the margin of error.

Now, it's likely a different story in the swing states. It's why we see that many of the congressional Democrats calling for him to step aside are from competitive districts. And we should point out that even where Biden is in our survey nationally is not where he likely needs to be to reflect an electoral college victory because Democratic votes just aren't well spread out across the country.

KELLY: You know, Domenico, the conversation these last couple of weeks has been Biden, Biden, Biden, Biden, Biden. How much does this result, though reflect how people may feel about Trump?

MONTANARO: A lot - I think it's a good reminder. I mean, this poll clearly shows that there's still heavy antipathy toward the former president. As I've said for a while, there's probably a majority of the country that doesn't want Trump to be president, but he still could win because of third parties and those who stay home. Now, the poll found a majority said neither man should be on the ballot. But a warning sign for Trump - this was really interesting. Sixty-eight percent say that it's more concerning to have a president who doesn't tell the truth compared to just 32% who say that it's a bigger deal to have a president who's too old to do the job.

I have to say, every election that we've seen since 2016 in some ways has been about Trump. This one was trending that way, and the Biden campaign certainly wants to continue to make it a referendum on Trump, and this latest episode with the debate does threaten to make the election a referendum on Biden, which, by the way, it usually is for an incumbent who's running for reelection.

KELLY: Indeed. OK, one other thing to ask about - this was from our poll, which I know asked about the Project 2025 blueprint. This is from The Heritage Foundation. It has become associated with Trump, even as he has disavowed parts of it. Do you - why does that matter? What did our survey find?

MONTANARO: Well, a lot of people don't like the Project 2025. They're - many people are unsure about it, but 15% have a favorable opinion. That's it. Forty-one percent have a negative opinion of it. And that's why - might be why you see Trump distancing himself so heavily from the controversial parts of this, because it's pretty unpopular. And going into the Convention next week, he really wants to try to eschew some of these more extreme positions.

Now, the Poll also found that Democrats and independents largely do associate it with Trump...

KELLY: Right.

MONTANARO: ...And for good reason. While he and his campaign didn't come up with it directly, a lot of people involved in writing it did have ties to Trump.

KELLY: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you.

MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.