Yellen warns of 'calamity' unless Congress raises the debt limit. What's the holdup?
The U.S. government could default on its debt in a matter of weeks if it doesn't raise the debt ceiling.
That would spell "economic calamity," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned this weekend.
"Whether it's defaulting on interest payments that are due on the debt or payments due for Social Security recipients or to Medicare providers, we would simply not have enough cash to meet all of our obligations," she told ABC's This Week. "And it's widely agreed that financial and economic chaos would ensue."
President Biden and Democrats in Congress say the U.S. should simply vote to increase the borrowing limit. But Republicans in the House so far have refused to approve any such legislation unless it also cuts future federal spending.
They were joined over the weekend by 43 Republican senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who submitted a letter to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer opposing a "clean" debt limit bill.
Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to meet on Tuesday to discuss the debt ceiling for the first time since February. McConnell, Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are also expected to be in attendance.
There's a lot at stake and no "face-saving off-ramp" in sight going into the meeting, NPR political correspondent Mara Liasson told Weekend Edition Sunday.
She says there are a few possible outcomes. Among them: Leaders could negotiate a deal and claim a political victory, or decide to kick the can down the road with a temporary debt ceiling increase, which would have to be negotiated later this year and could risk a government shutdown.
Or they could stay at an impasse and let the country default, with what economics say will be disastrous consequences.
"It's Congress's job to do this," Yellen said. "If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making and there is no action that President Biden and the U.S. Treasury can take to prevent that catastrophe."
A Republican lawmaker explains his party's stance
Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., the chair of the Republican Main Street Caucus, agrees with Yellen that defaulting on the debt would constitute a calamity.
"We should pay our bills," he told Morning Edition on Monday. "The constitution calls on us to do that and we should absolutely do it."
Why then, asked Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep, are Republicans intent on adding conditions?
Johnson says it would be irresponsible not to, as the country is dealing with what he calls "twin crises" of the debt ceiling and the national debt, which is now at almost $32 trillion.
"If you're a family who gets a maxed-out credit card bill and you just pay the bill and increase the limit on your credit cards without having a conversation at the family dinner table about what to do in the future, you're making a big mistake," Johnson says.
He points out that raising the debt ceiling and cutting federal spending have happened in tandem before, including under then-President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Biden in 2011.
Obama agreed to some spending restraints alongside raising the debt ceiling, after a drawn-out negotiations process that severely affected the stock market and lowered the U.S. credit rating.
Similarly, Yellen said over the weekend that "we're likely to see financial market consequences" even before the estimated June 1 default date if Congress doesn't act in the coming weeks.
Republicans control the House and are not without influence in a narrowly divided Senate. So couldn't they work out spending levels through appropriations bills, which fund the government each fiscal year?
Johnson says there's risk in doing it that way, since "we know that government shutdowns are not the way that any responsible country should be doing its business." He blames Biden's refusal to negotiate for bringing the U.S. this close to the brink.
"Had we just done our work three months ago, we wouldn't be talking about putting the stock market at risk," he adds. "We'd be talking about the budgetary controls that are moving us in the right direction."
Inskeep notes that many Americans, including Johnson's constituents, rely on federal funds for things like 401(k) plans, retirement funds and Social Security benefits. And he asks: Is Republicans' policy goal worth putting all that at risk?
"We put the retirement plans at risk ... if we do not act," Johnson says. Social Security's trust fund is projected to be insolvent by 2034.
However, the debt ceiling bill that House Republicans passed last month doesn't directly address Social Security, and leaders from both parties have said they will not touch entitlement programs in negotiations.
"We have a Washington establishment that has really on both sides of the aisle refused to acknowledge the serious crisis that is looming before us," Johnson says. "And I think we best sit down like big boys and big girls and address both of these problems, the time is right now."
The broadcast interview was edited by HJ Mai.
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Transcript
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
According to the Treasury Department, the U.S. government may default on its debts within a few weeks. The United States has plenty of tax money coming in, of course. It's the richest nation in history. But Congress has also committed to spend a lot. And without raising the debt ceiling, allowing the U.S. to borrow more, the U.S. can't pay its previous commitments. President Biden and Democrats in Congress say the U.S. should just pay. House Republicans have insisted they won't do that unless the U.S. also cuts future spending plans. Most Senate Republicans have now signed a letter saying they agree. And we've called Representative Dusty Johnson of South Dakota. He chairs the group of Republican lawmakers known as the Republican Main Street Caucus. Welcome back, sir.
DUSTY JOHNSON: Hey. Thanks for having me.
INSKEEP: OK, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. may run out of money June 1 and that default would be a calamity for the economy. Do you accept that basic assertion, it's a calamity if you don't resolve this by June 1?
JOHNSON: It is absolutely a calamity. We should pay our bills. The Constitution calls on us to do that. And we should absolutely do it.
INSKEEP: It's interesting that you say the Constitution calls on you to pay your bills. Doesn't that mean you should just pass the debt ceiling, which is what is necessary, rather than adding conditions?
JOHNSON: I think it would be irresponsible to do that. We have twin crises, not just one crisis. We do have the debt ceiling that has to be addressed, but we're also almost $32 trillion in debt. These issues have often been linked together in the past, often by Joe Biden. When he cut this deal in 2011 as vice president, he had linked them. And there have been times when he was in the Senate, 2004, when he voted against a debt ceiling increase because he said it did not do enough to change the spending trajectory of our country. So it's very typically linked. And I would note that if you're a family who gets a maxed-out credit card bill, if you just pay the bill and increase the limit on your credit cards without having a conversation at the family dinner table about what to do in the future, you're making a big mistake.
INSKEEP: I guess we should just note a little bit of history. You noted 2011. Joe Biden was vice president. President Obama did agree to some spending restraints alongside raising the debt ceiling after a negotiation that severely affected the stock market and nearly crashed the economy and lowered the U.S. credit rating. That's what happened the last time this was serious. And I'd just like to note...
JOHNSON: And, Steve, when you read the analysis...
INSKEEP: If you'll forgive me, I just want to ask, if I can - I mean, people in South Dakota, your constituents, a lot of them have 401(k) Plans, retirement plans. They have mutual funds. They have money. They're trying to build on that money. Is it necessary to put all of that at risk in order to achieve your policy goal?
JOHNSON: When you read the Moody's analysis of why they downgraded American debt back in 2011, they didn't say that it was because of how messy the agreement - the process to getting the agreement was. They downgraded American debt because they said the agreement itself did not do enough to guarantee American solvency in the future. And of course, it did not. So what we know is that failing to address these problems doesn't make them go away. We have social...
INSKEEP: But is it necessary - I'm sorry. I don't mean to interrupt because you've been very courteous to join us again.
JOHNSON: No, no. Go ahead.
INSKEEP: Is it necessary to put your constituents' retirement plans at risk in order to achieve your policy goal?
JOHNSON: We put their retirement plans at risk, Steve, if we do not act. Social Security is insolvent in 2028. And we have a Washington establishment that has really, on both sides of the aisle, refused to acknowledge the serious crisis that is looming before us. And I think we best sit down like big boys and big girls and address both of these problems. The time is ripe now.
INSKEEP: Let's stipulate the notion that the debt is very large and that that is a major concern of - that you have. Do you think that you could work out lower spending levels through ordinary appropriations? Your party controls the House. You have a lot of influence in the Senate. Could you not do this through ordinary appropriations without putting quite so much at risk?
JOHNSON: Well, I think there is plenty at risk when you do it through the appropriations process as well. We know that government shutdowns are not the way that any responsible country should be doing its business. I mean, listen; we should - we did not have to get to this crisis point. The reality is Joe Biden has resolutely refused to negotiate for 90 days. That is what has brought us close to the brink. Had we just done our work three months ago, we wouldn't be talking about putting the stock market at risk. We'd be talking about the budgetary controls that are moving us in the right direction.
INSKEEP: Congressman, it's a pleasure talking with you. Thank you very much for working through this with us.
JOHNSON: Thank you very much. Bye.
INSKEEP: Republican Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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