David Bowdich of the FBI's Los Angeles office said at a news conference that "there's a number of pieces of evidence that has pushed us off the cliff."
A new report glimpses life "inside the bubble of American ISIS sympathizers, a diverse and diffuse scene that the FBI estimates include hundreds, if not thousands, of individuals."
Ahmet Dahmani, 26, was arrested at a luxury hotel. Turkish police say two Syrian men were also arrested nearby, with fake passports in their possession.
The attack would be the most sophisticated yet by ISIS, as the simultaneous assaults occurred at multiple locations during a busy time of day in a major European capital.
"We know for a fact that the weapons system hit its intended target," Col. Steve Warren says. He adds that it will take time to make a formal declaration that the ISIS frontman was killed.
The small force will be sent to northern Syria to "help coordinate local ground forces and Coalition efforts" to counter ISIS, a senior administration official confirms to NPR's Scott Horsley.